CHI beat WPG 2–1 in overtime. CHI lost the expected-goals battle 1.7 to 4.0 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Connor Bedard scored at 2:15 of overtime, moving CHI’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Petr Mrazek saved 2.6 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WPG–CHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 15:57 | CHI | Connor Bedard from Connor Murphy, Philipp Kurashev | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 3:47 |  WPG | Morgan Barron from Axel Jonsson-Fjallby, Dominic Toninato | 1–1 | 28% → 47% |
| OT 2:15 | CHI | Connor Bedard from Alex Vlasic, Anthony Beauvillier | 1–2 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan Barron C | 10:55 | 1 | +0.89 | +0.03 | +0.86 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan DeMelo D | 23:01 | +0.41 | +0.40 | −0.05 | +0.05 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason Appleton C | 15:16 | +0.23 | +0.22 | −0.16 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Samberg D | 14:45 | +0.22 | +0.24 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 16:09 | +0.16 | +0.36 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Nino Niederreiter R | 16:23 | +0.12 | +0.16 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nate Schmidt D | 18:48 | +0.05 | +0.06 | −0.21 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brenden Dillon D | 17:30 | +0.04 | +0.06 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Axel Jonsson-Fjallby L | 8:45 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Iafallo L | 15:06 | +0.01 | +0.27 | −0.24 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dominic Toninato C | 8:23 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Josh Morrissey D | 24:52 | −0.14 | +0.25 | −0.40 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Neal Pionk D | 19:54 | −0.17 | −0.06 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Perfetti C | 13:31 | −0.20 | +0.27 | −0.46 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gabriel Vilardi C | 20:13 | −0.32 | −0.11 | −0.41 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Mark Scheifele C | 22:57 | −0.36 | −0.27 | −0.04 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.08 | ||
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 21:44 | −0.36 | −0.21 | −0.17 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Lowry C | 15:00 | −0.47 | +0.37 | −0.67 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.07 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Hellebuyck G | 61:48 | +0.01 |
CHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Bedard C | 18:53 | 2 | +0.96 | −0.24 | +1.26 | +0.01 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Connor Murphy D | 20:13 | 1 | +0.40 | +0.27 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Vlasic D | 20:16 | 1 | +0.40 | +0.37 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Foligno L | 20:26 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jason Dickinson C | 19:12 | −0.01 | +0.05 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.09 | ||
| MacKenzie Entwistle R | 7:47 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Taylor Raddysh R | 18:44 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colin Blackwell C | 13:41 | −0.14 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Ryan Donato C | 15:08 | −0.14 | −0.05 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Tyler Johnson C | 13:16 | −0.23 | −0.14 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Zaitsev D | 17:29 | −0.24 | −0.23 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Reese Johnson C | 9:33 | −0.34 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jarred Tinordi D | 17:08 | −0.44 | −0.26 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Lukas Reichel L | 9:09 | −0.44 | −0.27 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Isaak Phillips D | 20:47 | −0.47 | −0.43 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 14:29 | 1 | −0.59 | −0.20 | −0.20 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Korchinski D | 24:25 | −0.59 | −0.56 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Philipp Kurashev C | 18:09 | 1 | −0.78 | −0.25 | −0.33 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Petr Mrazek G | 62:15 | +2.64 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.