ARI beat COL 5–4 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (COL 3.2, ARI 3.1), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Jack McBain scored at 4:40 of overtime, moving ARI’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Alexandar Georgiev allowed 1.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | COL–ARI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 18:16 | COL | Mikko RantanenPP from Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar | 1–0 | 48% → 65% |
| P2 1:04 | COL | Jonathan Drouin from Ross Colton, Devon Toews | 2–0 | 66% → 81% |
| P2 7:56 | COL | Logan O'Connor from Josh Manson, Bowen Byram | 3–0 | 83% → 95% |
| P2 13:26 | COL | Nathan MacKinnonPP from Mikko Rantanen, Cale Makar | 4–0 | 98% → 99% |
| P2 16:31 | ARI | Lawson Crouse from Nick Bjugstad, Matias Maccelli | 4–1 | 1% → 3% |
| P3 3:48 | ARI | Michael Kesselring from Sean Durzi | 4–2 | 2% → 8% |
| P3 7:04 | ARI | Jason Zucker from Sean Durzi, Logan Cooley | 4–3 | 6% → 23% |
| P3 17:53 | ARI | Sean DurziPP from Matias Maccelli, Lawson Crouse | 4–4 | 8% → 50% |
| OT 4:40 | ARI | Jack McBain from Jason Zucker, Sean Durzi | 4–5 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan O'Connor R | 15:39 | 1 | +0.72 | +0.09 | +0.64 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 24:36 | 1 | 1 | +0.67 | +0.06 | +0.53 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jonathan Drouin L | 17:18 | 1 | +0.41 | −0.04 | +0.49 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Mikko Rantanen R | 24:13 | 1 | 1 | +0.35 | −0.45 | +0.68 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 |
| Ross Colton C | 11:16 | 1 | +0.25 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.03 | |
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 25:06 | +0.25 | +0.25 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cale Makar D | 25:55 | 2 | +0.24 | +0.29 | −0.49 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.37 | +0.00 | |
| Devon Toews D | 23:58 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.20 | −0.11 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Kiviranta L | 10:46 | +0.07 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jack Johnson D | 17:43 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Cogliano C | 12:55 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Fredrik Olofsson L | 11:04 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Kurtis MacDermid L | 4:07 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Johansen C | 15:14 | −0.01 | +0.05 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Sam Malinski D | 14:36 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bowen Byram D | 19:26 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Miles Wood L | 15:21 | −0.26 | +0.14 | −0.38 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Manson D | 20:47 | 1 | −0.64 | −0.29 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alexandar Georgiev G | 64:40 | −1.90 |
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Durzi D | 23:37 | 1 | 3 | +0.98 | +0.15 | +0.85 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jason Zucker L | 14:39 | 1 | 1 | +0.95 | +0.49 | +0.45 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jack McBain C | 13:31 | 1 | +0.88 | +0.18 | +0.68 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Michael Kesselring D | 18:06 | 1 | +0.81 | −0.00 | +0.81 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lawson Crouse L | 17:47 | 1 | 1 | +0.34 | −0.41 | +0.77 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Liam O'Brien C | 9:53 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Troy Stecher D | 19:01 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Schmaltz C | 19:00 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Travis Dermott D | 19:46 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 19:13 | −0.14 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Zachary Sanford L | 10:59 | −0.16 | −0.03 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Michael Carcone L | 11:47 | −0.17 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Cooley C | 13:46 | 1 | −0.30 | +0.07 | −0.32 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.08 | |
| Matias Maccelli L | 17:30 | 2 | −0.31 | −0.12 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Clayton Keller R | 18:48 | −0.48 | −0.09 | −0.36 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Mathew Dumba D | 21:34 | −0.56 | −0.38 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Juuso Välimäki D | 19:53 | −0.58 | +0.04 | −0.64 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Bjugstad C | 18:27 | 1 | −0.83 | −0.79 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Karel Vejmelka G | 63:57 | −1.16 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.