NJD beat CBJ 4–3 in overtime. NJD also won the expected-goals battle 3.8 to 3.0: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Timo Meier scored at 2:12 of overtime, moving NJD’s win probability from 52% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CBJ–NJD | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:39 |  CBJ | Jake Bean from Brendan Gaunce, Alexandre Texier | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 9:55 |  NJD | Ondrej Palat from Erik Haula, Dawson Mercer | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P2 8:28 | CBJ | Justin Danforth from David Jiricek, Adam Fantilli | 2–1 | 47% → 68% |
| P3 15:51 | NJD | Dawson Mercer from Simon Nemec | 2–2 | 12% → 51% |
| P3 17:34 | CBJ | Egor Chinakhov unassisted | 3–2 | 49% → 92% |
| P3 18:35 | NJD | Luke HughesPP from Jack Hughes, Dawson Mercer | 3–3 | 7% → 50% |
| OT 2:12 | NJD | Timo Meier unassisted | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Egor Chinakhov R | 16:37 | 1 | +0.62 | +0.13 | +0.50 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Danforth R | 21:33 | 1 | +0.49 | −0.21 | +0.68 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Damon Severson D | 23:03 | +0.33 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.37 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Bean D | 20:00 | 1 | +0.15 | −0.23 | +0.41 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dmitri Voronkov L | 12:42 | +0.07 | +0.12 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Alexandre Texier L | 14:57 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Zach Werenski D | 11:15 | −0.04 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Jiricek D | 13:35 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kirill Marchenko R | 16:10 | −0.06 | +0.06 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Erik Gudbranson D | 22:20 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Provorov D | 27:32 | −0.17 | −0.02 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Gaunce C | 10:31 | 1 | −0.18 | +0.05 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Adam Fantilli C | 15:11 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.03 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mathieu Olivier R | 9:51 | −0.23 | +0.07 | −0.29 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Johnny Gaudreau L | 18:45 | −0.35 | −0.32 | −0.09 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Emil Bemstrom C | 14:25 | −0.42 | −0.15 | −0.26 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Sillinger C | 16:21 | −0.50 | −0.27 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Kent Johnson C | 15:54 | −0.56 | −0.10 | −0.46 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Elvis Merzlikins G | 62:06 | +0.01 |
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ondrej Palat L | 14:51 | 1 | +0.71 | +0.20 | +0.66 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Luke Hughes D | 20:41 | 1 | +0.69 | +0.20 | +0.71 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Dawson Mercer C | 20:29 | 1 | 2 | +0.66 | +0.22 | +0.46 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Timo Meier R | 18:55 | 1 | +0.48 | +0.16 | +0.30 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Simon Nemec D | 22:37 | 1 | +0.38 | +0.20 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nico Hischier C | 17:35 | +0.33 | +0.17 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.04 | ||
| John Marino D | 23:18 | +0.13 | +0.13 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colin Miller D | 12:15 | +0.06 | +0.11 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Haula L | 13:17 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Kevin Bahl D | 14:44 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Holtz R | 11:12 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Smith D | 9:06 | −0.13 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan Bastian R | 6:16 | −0.13 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonas Siegenthaler D | 18:39 | −0.15 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesper Bratt L | 21:06 | −0.16 | −0.04 | −0.14 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael McLeod C | 14:33 | −0.26 | +0.11 | −0.21 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Tyler Toffoli C | 18:48 | −0.30 | +0.00 | −0.32 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Hughes C | 22:40 | 1 | −1.11 | +0.05 | −1.18 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Vitek Vanecek G | 61:46 | +0.12 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.