COL beat OTT 6–4. COL lost the expected-goals battle 3.5 to 4.0 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Nathan MacKinnon scored on the power play at 6:16 of the third, moving COL’s win probability from 24% to 53%. Joonas Korpisalo allowed 1.1 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | OTT–COL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:43 | COL | Nathan MacKinnonPP from Jonathan Drouin, Cale Makar | 0–1 | 54% → 69% |
| P1 15:13 |  OTT | Josh NorrisPP from Drake Batherson, Tim Stützle | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P1 15:28 | OTT | Ridly Greig from Dominik Kubalik, Jakob Chychrun | 2–1 | 47% → 65% |
| P1 18:28 | COL | Nathan MacKinnon from Valeri Nichushkin | 2–2 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 1:32 | OTT | Jacob Bernard-Docker from Jiri Smejkal, Mark Kastelic | 3–2 | 47% → 66% |
| P2 14:47 | OTT | Drake Batherson from Vladimir Tarasenko, Artem Zub | 4–2 | 70% → 87% |
| P2 19:43 | COL | Mikko RantanenPP unassisted | 4–3 | 11% → 28% |
| P3 6:16 | COL | Nathan MacKinnonPP from Devon Toews, Valeri Nichushkin | 4–4 | 24% → 53% |
| P3 7:10 | COL | Mikko RantanenPP from Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar | 4–5 | 53% → 81% |
| P3 19:37 | COL | Nathan MacKinnonEN from Valeri Nichushkin | 4–6 | 97% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Norris C | 20:42 | 1 | +1.05 | +0.07 | +0.67 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.37 | −0.04 | |
| Jacob Bernard-Docker D | 13:18 | 1 | +0.98 | +0.09 | +0.90 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Drake Batherson R | 20:37 | 1 | 1 | +0.70 | +0.38 | +0.49 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 |
| Ridly Greig C | 14:41 | 1 | +0.61 | −0.16 | +0.80 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Jakob Chychrun D | 21:17 | 1 | +0.42 | +0.48 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Claude Giroux R | 20:48 | +0.09 | +0.09 | −0.02 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Erik Brannstrom D | 15:06 | +0.03 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Tkachuk L | 20:08 | −0.03 | +0.32 | −0.74 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.37 | +0.01 | ||
| Travis Hamonic D | 13:21 | −0.07 | +0.03 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dominik Kubalik L | 13:42 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Mark Kastelic C | 5:04 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.02 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Artem Zub D | 21:54 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.22 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Angus Crookshank C | 8:35 | −0.24 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jiri Smejkal L | 11:03 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.05 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Tim Stützle C | 22:23 | 1 | −0.28 | +0.30 | −0.57 | +0.05 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Parker Kelly C | 11:33 | −0.29 | −0.03 | −0.24 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jake Sanderson D | 24:39 | −0.59 | −0.38 | −0.23 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 15:21 | 1 | −0.64 | +0.17 | −0.82 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joonas Korpisalo G | 59:23 | −1.06 |
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 22:51 | 4 | 1 | +1.97 | −0.05 | +1.87 | +0.15 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Mikko Rantanen R | 22:57 | 2 | +1.15 | −0.07 | +0.95 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Devon Toews D | 25:15 | 1 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.04 | +0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Ross Colton C | 10:24 | +0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Kurtis MacDermid L | 3:08 | +0.04 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Meyers C | 5:52 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cale Makar D | 28:26 | 2 | −0.05 | +0.09 | −0.24 | +0.06 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 29:05 | 3 | −0.10 | −0.17 | −0.31 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.37 | +0.01 | |
| Ryan Johansen C | 10:15 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jonathan Drouin L | 15:11 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.17 | −0.31 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Bowen Byram D | 20:04 | −0.25 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Kiviranta L | 10:28 | −0.26 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Sam Malinski D | 11:00 | −0.30 | +0.09 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.37 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan O'Connor R | 18:37 | −0.33 | −0.15 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Fredrik Olofsson L | 9:04 | −0.39 | −0.11 | −0.27 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Manson D | 17:32 | −0.41 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.37 | +0.00 | ||
| Miles Wood L | 15:49 | −0.42 | −0.10 | −0.32 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jack Johnson D | 14:01 | −0.54 | −0.36 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alexandar Georgiev G | 59:22 | +0.40 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.