DAL beat VAN 4–3 in overtime. DAL also won the expected-goals battle 3.9 to 2.2: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Matt Duchene scored at 4:50 of overtime, moving DAL’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Scott Wedgewood allowed 1.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VAN–DAL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:51 | VAN | Dakota Joshua from Conor Garland, Teddy Blueger | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 10:51 |  DAL | Tyler Seguin from Matt Duchene, Miro Heiskanen | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P2 7:51 | DAL | Roope Hintz from Jason Robertson, Joe Pavelski | 1–2 | 53% → 73% |
| P2 12:26 | VAN | Brock Boeser from J.T. Miller, Quinn Hughes | 2–2 | 26% → 47% |
| P3 15:04 | VAN | Conor Garland from Dakota Joshua, Teddy Blueger | 3–2 | 49% → 87% |
| P3 16:30 | DAL | Thomas Harley from Jason Robertson, Miro Heiskanen | 3–3 | 11% → 51% |
| OT 4:50 | DAL | Matt Duchene from Thomas Harley, Wyatt Johnston | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dakota Joshua C | 18:04 | 1 | 1 | +1.01 | +0.04 | +0.76 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.03 |
| Conor Garland R | 14:18 | 1 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.03 | +0.66 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Brock Boeser R | 19:40 | 1 | +0.55 | −0.13 | +0.69 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nils Hoglander L | 11:25 | −0.10 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Zadorov D | 18:56 | −0.16 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Juulsen D | 16:08 | −0.16 | −0.13 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pius Suter C | 17:37 | −0.16 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Tyler Myers D | 21:11 | −0.19 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nils Aman C | 8:32 | −0.22 | −0.08 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Lafferty C | 9:34 | −0.23 | −0.26 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Phillip Di Giuseppe L | 7:54 | −0.24 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Filip Hronek D | 25:41 | −0.28 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Elias Pettersson C | 21:35 | −0.29 | −0.13 | −0.33 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Quinn Hughes D | 26:48 | 1 | −0.31 | −0.25 | −0.06 | +0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Teddy Blueger C | 16:55 | 2 | −0.32 | −0.11 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Ilya Mikheyev R | 18:58 | −0.32 | −0.32 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian Cole D | 16:03 | −0.42 | −0.24 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| J.T. Miller C | 19:11 | 1 | −0.56 | −0.31 | −0.26 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Thatcher Demko G | 64:50 | −0.53 |
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Harley D | 20:36 | 1 | 1 | +1.13 | +0.32 | +0.81 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Roope Hintz C | 18:50 | 1 | +1.02 | +0.36 | +0.65 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Tyler Seguin C | 18:42 | 1 | +0.80 | −0.05 | +0.80 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Matt Duchene C | 18:48 | 1 | 1 | +0.61 | +0.21 | +0.37 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Ryan Suter D | 19:29 | +0.25 | +0.27 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joe Pavelski C | 16:31 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.33 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Miro Heiskanen D | 26:56 | 2 | +0.16 | +0.30 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Esa Lindell D | 20:51 | +0.14 | +0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jani Hakanpää D | 19:59 | +0.12 | +0.14 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Benn L | 13:37 | +0.08 | +0.28 | −0.28 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Mason Marchment L | 16:21 | +0.08 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Craig Smith C | 9:50 | +0.03 | +0.10 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgenii Dadonov L | 13:28 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Radek Faksa C | 12:24 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Joel Hanley D | 12:39 | −0.12 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Wyatt Johnston C | 17:11 | 1 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Sam Steel C | 13:48 | −0.27 | −0.01 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Jason Robertson L | 18:33 | 2 | −0.58 | +0.23 | −0.82 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Scott Wedgewood G | 64:50 | −1.21 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.