NYR beat TOR 5–2. NYR lost the expected-goals battle 2.3 to 2.6 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Braden Schneider scored at 8:08 of the third, moving NYR’s win probability from 48% to 78%. Martin Jones allowed 1.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYR–TOR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 6:11 |  NYR | Mika Zibanejad from Blake Wheeler, Chris Kreider | 1–0 | 47% → 67% |
| P2 7:32 | TOR | Auston Matthews from Morgan Rielly, Tyler Bertuzzi | 1–1 | 32% → 53% |
| P2 9:50 | NYR | Alexis LafrenièrePP from Jonny Brodzinski, Erik Gustafsson | 2–1 | 48% → 68% |
| P3 1:16 | TOR | Auston Matthews from Jake McCabe, William Nylander | 2–2 | 27% → 52% |
| P3 8:08 | NYR | Braden Schneider from Erik Gustafsson, Blake Wheeler | 3–2 | 48% → 78% |
| P3 15:08 | NYR | Artemi PanarinPP from Erik Gustafsson, Vincent Trocheck | 4–2 | 88% → 99% |
| P3 16:47 | NYR | Mika ZibanejadEN from Ryan Lindgren, Chris Kreider | 5–2 | 99% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braden Schneider D | 14:11 | 1 | +1.01 | +0.20 | +0.79 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexis Lafrenière L | 17:48 | 1 | +0.89 | +0.19 | +0.70 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mika Zibanejad C | 15:23 | 2 | +0.62 | −0.04 | +0.65 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Artemi Panarin L | 20:02 | 1 | +0.28 | +0.16 | +0.10 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vincent Trocheck C | 20:09 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.18 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Erik Gustafsson D | 14:11 | 3 | +0.16 | +0.30 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Lindgren D | 18:52 | 1 | +0.12 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Pitlick C | 14:49 | +0.09 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.03 | ||
| Adam Fox D | 21:47 | −0.05 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Wheeler R | 11:34 | 2 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Nick Bonino C | 12:34 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Chris Kreider L | 16:09 | 2 | −0.14 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Will Cuylle L | 11:26 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Trouba D | 24:11 | −0.18 | −0.20 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonny Brodzinski C | 11:13 | 1 | −0.21 | +0.05 | −0.27 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jimmy Vesey L | 15:04 | −0.25 | −0.02 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| K'Andre Miller D | 23:36 | −0.25 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Barclay Goodrow C | 17:01 | −0.40 | −0.16 | −0.23 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Igor Shesterkin G | 60:00 | +0.36 |
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auston Matthews C | 18:36 | 2 | +1.52 | +0.07 | +1.44 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Mitch Marner R | 18:51 | +0.14 | +0.20 | −0.11 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake McCabe D | 20:41 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.15 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matthew Knies L | 16:07 | −0.02 | +0.10 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Domi C | 12:18 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| TJ Brodie D | 19:58 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Bertuzzi L | 17:37 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.19 | −0.24 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Bobby McMann C | 11:02 | −0.07 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Timmins D | 17:50 | −0.09 | +0.09 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicholas Robertson L | 10:18 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Timothy Liljegren D | 21:38 | −0.12 | −0.09 | −0.05 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Rielly D | 22:07 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 12:54 | −0.16 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| William Lagesson D | 17:01 | −0.22 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| William Nylander R | 18:13 | 1 | −0.22 | +0.07 | −0.29 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Noah Gregor L | 11:47 | −0.29 | −0.21 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Kampf C | 12:22 | −0.38 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| John Tavares C | 18:36 | −0.45 | +0.16 | −0.57 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Martin Jones G | 58:47 | −1.25 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.