DAL beat SEA 4–3 in overtime. DAL lost the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 3.2 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Thomas Harley scored at 2:16 of overtime, moving DAL’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Joey Daccord allowed 1.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SEA–DAL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:14 |  DAL | Matt Duchene from Tyler Seguin, Mason Marchment | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 10:20 | DAL | Jason Robertson from Joe Pavelski, Roope Hintz | 0–2 | 70% → 83% |
| P2 0:32 | SEA | Tomas Tatar from Matty Beniers | 1–2 | 14% → 28% |
| P2 6:20 | DAL | Matt DuchenePP from Joe Pavelski, Evgenii Dadonov | 1–3 | 74% → 87% |
| P2 13:48 | SEA | Matty Beniers from Jordan Eberle, Tomas Tatar | 2–3 | 10% → 25% |
| P3 19:38 | SEA | Eeli TolvanenPP from Alexander Wennberg, Oliver Bjorkstrand | 3–3 | 3% → 49% |
| OT 2:16 | DAL | Thomas Harley from Matt Duchene, Jamie Benn | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SEA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matty Beniers C | 21:17 | 1 | 1 | +0.84 | +0.31 | +0.49 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Eeli Tolvanen R | 19:19 | 1 | +0.54 | +0.06 | +0.31 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Vince Dunn D | 23:41 | +0.41 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Eberle R | 17:01 | 1 | +0.26 | +0.39 | −0.14 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Will Borgen D | 13:17 | +0.12 | +0.10 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Tatar L | 16:16 | 1 | 1 | +0.04 | −0.04 | +0.27 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Pierre-Edouard Bellemare L | 4:10 | +0.01 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Jared McCann L | 9:10 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Alexander Wennberg C | 19:58 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 17:07 | −0.04 | +0.12 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Larsson D | 26:13 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryker Evans D | 18:22 | −0.10 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 18:55 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.15 | −0.27 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tye Kartye L | 10:48 | −0.13 | +0.03 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brian Dumoulin D | 15:53 | −0.16 | −0.06 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Tanev L | 17:23 | −0.28 | −0.02 | −0.27 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kailer Yamamoto R | 11:20 | −0.33 | −0.06 | −0.26 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yanni Gourde C | 19:24 | −0.91 | −0.10 | −0.38 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.37 | −0.07 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joey Daccord G | 61:30 | −1.53 |
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Duchene C | 19:49 | 2 | 1 | +1.38 | −0.10 | +1.47 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Jamie Benn L | 16:02 | 1 | +0.39 | +0.18 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Esa Lindell D | 19:55 | +0.32 | +0.29 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Thomas Harley D | 20:20 | 1 | +0.29 | −0.07 | +0.57 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jason Robertson L | 19:53 | 1 | +0.19 | −0.20 | +0.37 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jani Hakanpää D | 18:10 | +0.06 | +0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Roope Hintz C | 18:57 | 1 | +0.06 | −0.12 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.04 | |
| Mason Marchment L | 15:25 | 1 | +0.05 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Steel C | 11:06 | +0.04 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Joel Hanley D | 9:37 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgenii Dadonov L | 10:49 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Wyatt Johnston C | 15:09 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Ty Dellandrea C | 10:24 | −0.17 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Craig Smith C | 7:50 | −0.21 | −0.02 | −0.19 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Suter D | 21:12 | −0.34 | −0.31 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joe Pavelski C | 19:23 | 2 | −0.45 | −0.03 | −0.26 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Miro Heiskanen D | 27:10 | −0.52 | −0.27 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Seguin C | 18:48 | 1 | −0.67 | −0.43 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Scott Wedgewood G | 61:05 | +0.85 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.