MTL beat WPG 3–2 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (MTL 2.4, WPG 2.5), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Justin Barron scored on the power play at 1:09 of overtime, moving MTL’s win probability from 50% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MTL–WPG | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 4:57 |  MTL | Josh Anderson from Mike Matheson, Jake Evans | 1–0 | 47% → 67% |
| P2 15:04 | MTL | Christian DvorakPP from Josh Anderson, Brendan Gallagher | 2–0 | 71% → 87% |
| P2 19:04 |  WPG | Gabriel Vilardi from Josh Morrissey, Nikolaj Ehlers | 2–1 | 11% → 28% |
| P3 12:24 | WPG | Cole Perfetti from Vladislav Namestnikov, Brenden Dillon | 2–2 | 17% → 51% |
| OT 1:09 | MTL | Justin BarronPP from Cole Caufield, Nick Suzuki | 3–2 | 50% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Dvorak C | 17:07 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.12 | +0.65 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Josh Anderson R | 16:18 | 1 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.05 | +0.75 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Justin Barron D | 20:45 | 1 | +0.62 | +0.16 | +0.68 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Cole Caufield R | 20:46 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mike Matheson D | 25:59 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.04 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Johnathan Kovacevic D | 12:11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Savard D | 23:08 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mitchell Stephens C | 5:38 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Pezzetta L | 6:06 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Armia R | 16:33 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jesse Ylonen R | 6:44 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jayden Struble D | 13:22 | −0.12 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Suzuki C | 23:48 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.08 | −0.27 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 20:06 | −0.22 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Kaiden Guhle D | 22:11 | −0.30 | −0.08 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Evans C | 16:30 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.09 | −0.41 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Brendan Gallagher R | 15:01 | 1 | −0.34 | +0.02 | −0.31 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Sean Monahan C | 18:23 | −0.38 | +0.01 | −0.41 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Allen G | 61:09 | +0.79 |
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Perfetti C | 13:54 | 1 | +0.58 | +0.03 | +0.56 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Gabriel Vilardi C | 21:15 | 1 | +0.38 | −0.01 | +0.39 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Axel Jonsson-Fjallby L | 6:18 | +0.12 | +0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Gustafsson C | 9:21 | +0.12 | +0.15 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Dylan Samberg D | 14:56 | +0.02 | +0.07 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason Appleton C | 15:59 | +0.02 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladislav Namestnikov C | 13:50 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.05 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Neal Pionk D | 18:40 | +0.00 | +0.13 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan DeMelo D | 25:41 | −0.01 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nate Schmidt D | 14:49 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brenden Dillon D | 22:02 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Iafallo L | 12:45 | −0.13 | +0.06 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Morrissey D | 22:29 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Lowry C | 18:05 | −0.24 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Nino Niederreiter R | 14:00 | −0.29 | −0.06 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 20:59 | 1 | −0.30 | +0.03 | −0.16 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Scheifele C | 21:19 | −0.31 | −0.09 | −0.41 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Morgan Barron C | 13:05 | −0.45 | +0.08 | −0.52 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Hellebuyck G | 61:09 | −0.23 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.