STL beat DAL 4–3 in overtime. STL also won the expected-goals battle 3.1 to 2.4: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Colton Parayko scored at 0:37 of overtime, moving STL’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Jordan Binnington allowed 1.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DAL–STL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:58 |  DAL | Mason Marchment from Tyler Seguin, Matt Duchene | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 6:47 | DAL | Ty Dellandrea from Radek Faksa, Sam Steel | 2–0 | 63% → 76% |
| P1 12:53 |  STL | Brandon SaadPP from Jordan Kyrou, Kevin Hayes | 2–1 | 23% → 36% |
| P2 1:36 | STL | Jordan Kyrou from Torey Krug, Robert Thomas | 2–2 | 34% → 53% |
| P2 16:46 | STL | Kevin Hayes from Alexey Toropchenko, Torey Krug | 2–3 | 53% → 76% |
| P3 13:09 | DAL | Evgenii Dadonov from Miro Heiskanen, Thomas Harley | 3–3 | 14% → 49% |
| OT 0:37 | STL | Colton Parayko from Jordan Kyrou, Robert Thomas | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ty Dellandrea C | 10:49 | 1 | +0.62 | +0.01 | +0.82 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Evgenii Dadonov L | 14:11 | 1 | +0.61 | −0.12 | +0.74 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mason Marchment L | 15:16 | 1 | +0.54 | −0.08 | +0.61 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Roope Hintz C | 16:18 | +0.30 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.04 | ||
| Esa Lindell D | 17:24 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Steel C | 11:26 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Joe Pavelski C | 16:50 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Suter D | 20:14 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nils Lundkvist D | 13:49 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Wyatt Johnston C | 15:05 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jani Hakanpää D | 18:12 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Thomas Harley D | 19:24 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Radek Faksa C | 11:51 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jamie Benn L | 15:06 | −0.25 | −0.09 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Jason Robertson L | 19:57 | −0.28 | −0.06 | −0.24 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Miro Heiskanen D | 26:13 | 1 | −0.33 | −0.34 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Duchene C | 20:05 | 1 | −0.36 | −0.38 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Tyler Seguin C | 18:29 | 1 | −0.50 | −0.31 | −0.18 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Scott Wedgewood G | 60:37 | −0.56 |
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colton Parayko D | 25:18 | 1 | +1.10 | +0.33 | +0.74 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Hayes R | 15:21 | 1 | 1 | +0.52 | +0.03 | +0.47 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Brandon Saad L | 14:48 | 1 | +0.32 | −0.15 | +0.48 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Robert Thomas C | 21:15 | 2 | +0.31 | +0.45 | −0.17 | +0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.08 | |
| Jordan Kyrou R | 17:39 | 1 | 2 | +0.25 | +0.28 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Hugh McGing L | 8:12 | +0.12 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Leddy D | 23:53 | +0.08 | +0.19 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexey Toropchenko R | 14:13 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Faulk D | 22:34 | +0.01 | +0.11 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Neighbours L | 14:56 | −0.02 | +0.16 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oskar Sundqvist C | 11:55 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mackenzie MacEachern L | 7:57 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Torey Krug D | 21:16 | 2 | −0.10 | +0.09 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 19:18 | −0.12 | +0.24 | −0.39 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Marco Scandella D | 14:00 | −0.12 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Tucker D | 12:40 | −0.15 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kasperi Kapanen R | 15:18 | −0.30 | −0.07 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden Schenn C | 15:44 | −0.38 | −0.12 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Binnington G | 60:11 | −1.29 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.