BOS beat NYI 5–4 in a shootout. BOS lost the expected-goals battle 2.7 to 4.2 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Mason Lohrei scored at 16:51 of the third, moving BOS’s win probability from 9% to 49%. Ilya Sorokin allowed 2.6 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BOS–NYI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 1:42 | NYI | Alexander Romanov from Mathew Barzal, Bo Horvat | 0–1 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 13:26 | NYI | Simon Holmstrom from Jean-Gabriel Pageau | 0–2 | 75% → 89% |
| P2 14:45 | BOS | Morgan GeekiePP from James van Riemsdyk, Brad Marchand | 1–2 | 11% → 25% |
| P2 17:26 | BOS | David PastrnakPP from Kevin Shattenkirk, Morgan Geekie | 2–2 | 25% → 47% |
| P3 5:06 | NYI | Bo HorvatPP from Brock Nelson, Mike Reilly | 2–3 | 53% → 80% |
| P3 10:48 | BOS | James van RiemsdykPP from Kevin Shattenkirk, David Pastrnak | 3–3 | 17% → 48% |
| P3 12:01 | NYI | Brock NelsonPP from Bo Horvat, Mathew Barzal | 3–4 | 53% → 85% |
| P3 16:51 | BOS | Mason Lohrei unassisted | 4–4 | 9% → 49% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BOS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Pastrnak R | 24:18 | 1 | 1 | +1.28 | +0.10 | +0.25 | +0.09 | −0.02 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +1.06 |
| Mason Lohrei D | 16:30 | 1 | +0.76 | −0.08 | +0.84 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| James van Riemsdyk L | 12:42 | 1 | 1 | +0.67 | +0.12 | +0.56 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 |
| Morgan Geekie C | 18:53 | 1 | 1 | +0.56 | −0.02 | +0.57 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 |
| Matt Grzelcyk D | 22:36 | +0.18 | +0.09 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Charlie Coyle C | 23:15 | +0.07 | −0.06 | −0.43 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.08 | +0.84 | ||
| Parker Wotherspoon D | 19:19 | +0.04 | +0.12 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Brad Marchand L | 23:53 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.03 | −0.22 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Oskar Steen C | 11:11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakub Lauko C | 8:19 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Danton Heinen L | 19:08 | −0.09 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Beecher C | 8:48 | −0.15 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | ||
| Trent Frederic C | 14:07 | −0.17 | +0.04 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Carlo D | 23:10 | −0.25 | −0.19 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Hampus Lindholm D | 26:04 | −0.30 | −0.32 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Kevin Shattenkirk D | 18:00 | 2 | −0.33 | −0.10 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Jesper Boqvist C | 4:47 | −0.36 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake DeBrusk L | 17:49 | −0.63 | −0.17 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.30 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Linus Ullmark G | 65:00 | +0.58 |
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Nelson C | 22:19 | 1 | 1 | +0.89 | +0.34 | +0.31 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.07 | +0.00 |
| Simon Holmstrom R | 15:54 | 1 | +0.89 | −0.33 | +0.47 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.75 | |
| Alexander Romanov D | 22:49 | 1 | +0.80 | −0.08 | +0.88 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Samuel Bolduc D | 13:13 | +0.18 | +0.17 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Mike Reilly D | 21:00 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.08 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Robert Bortuzzo D | 15:11 | +0.08 | +0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Cal Clutterbuck R | 14:43 | +0.07 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Cizikas C | 13:20 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.04 | +0.00 | ||
| Hudson Fasching R | 12:43 | +0.04 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Palmieri C | 16:29 | +0.03 | +0.19 | −0.36 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sebastian Aho D | 19:46 | −0.00 | +0.06 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Bo Horvat C | 20:26 | 1 | 2 | −0.04 | +0.17 | +0.09 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.30 |
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 14:39 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.04 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | |
| Noah Dobson D | 31:31 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.14 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Julien Gauthier R | 11:02 | −0.33 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.03 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre Engvall L | 15:56 | −0.40 | +0.18 | −0.55 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathew Barzal C | 20:56 | 2 | −0.44 | +0.10 | −0.21 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.35 | |
| Anders Lee C | 13:42 | −0.61 | +0.24 | −0.67 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Sorokin G | 65:00 | −2.63 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.