CBJ beat TOR 6–5 in overtime. CBJ lost the expected-goals battle 3.9 to 5.1 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Kent Johnson scored at 3:26 of overtime, moving CBJ’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Ilya Samsonov allowed 1.8 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CBJ–TOR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:19 |  CBJ | Patrik Laine from Kent Johnson | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 11:56 | CBJ | Kent Johnson from Andrew Peeke | 2–0 | 64% → 77% |
| P2 8:16 | CBJ | Justin Danforth from Ivan Provorov, David Jiricek | 3–0 | 83% → 95% |
| P2 10:45 | CBJ | Egor Chinakhov from Ivan Provorov, David Jiricek | 4–0 | 95% → 99% |
| P2 14:19 | CBJ | Johnny GaudreauPP from Egor Chinakhov, Zach Werenski | 5–0 | 99% → 99% |
| P3 0:38 | TOR | William Nylander from Auston Matthews, William Lagesson | 5–1 | 1% → 1% |
| P3 3:49 | TOR | Mitch Marner from John Tavares, Bobby McMann | 5–2 | 0% → 2% |
| P3 14:21 | TOR | Jake McCabePP from Conor Timmins, Nicholas Robertson | 5–3 | 0% → 2% |
| P3 18:45 | TOR | Auston MatthewsPP from William Nylander, Mitch Marner | 5–4 | 0% → 5% |
| P3 19:15 | TOR | Auston MatthewsPP from Mitch Marner, John Tavares | 5–5 | 5% → 51% |
| OT 3:26 | CBJ | Kent Johnson from Zach Werenski, Justin Danforth | 6–5 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kent Johnson C | 14:23 | 2 | 1 | +1.44 | −0.02 | +1.46 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Patrik Laine L | 7:41 | 1 | +0.91 | −0.02 | +0.76 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Justin Danforth R | 19:20 | 1 | 1 | +0.64 | −0.09 | +0.76 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Egor Chinakhov R | 19:21 | 1 | 1 | +0.61 | −0.08 | +0.52 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Johnny Gaudreau L | 20:55 | 1 | +0.49 | −0.06 | +0.48 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| David Jiricek D | 15:43 | 2 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andrew Peeke D | 19:35 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Bean D | 12:35 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Kuraly C | 11:36 | −0.12 | −0.03 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Emil Bemstrom C | 9:15 | −0.19 | −0.03 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Nick Blankenburg D | 21:22 | −0.19 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Texier L | 9:54 | −0.20 | −0.02 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ivan Provorov D | 22:57 | 2 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Kirill Marchenko R | 19:18 | −0.28 | −0.15 | −0.30 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.03 | ||
| Zach Werenski D | 29:05 | 2 | −0.31 | +0.01 | −0.35 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dmitri Voronkov L | 15:12 | −0.46 | +0.05 | −0.52 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Sillinger C | 16:50 | −0.48 | −0.10 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.03 | ||
| Adam Fantilli C | 19:29 | −0.63 | +0.07 | −0.48 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Elvis Merzlikins G | 63:26 | −0.08 |
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch Marner R | 25:24 | 1 | 2 | +1.01 | +0.05 | +0.69 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 |
| Auston Matthews C | 24:42 | 2 | 1 | +0.90 | +0.35 | +0.47 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| Jake McCabe D | 24:02 | 1 | +0.88 | +0.03 | +0.83 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Conor Timmins D | 17:19 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Simon Benoit D | 12:43 | +0.05 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| TJ Brodie D | 21:27 | +0.03 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Gregor L | 13:59 | +0.02 | +0.08 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Reaves R | 1:36 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Nylander R | 23:18 | 1 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| David Kampf C | 10:07 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Morgan Rielly D | 26:43 | −0.13 | +0.05 | −0.20 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Domi C | 14:11 | −0.13 | +0.02 | −0.24 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Tyler Bertuzzi L | 16:24 | −0.15 | −0.03 | −0.16 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 18:32 | −0.19 | −0.06 | −0.10 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nicholas Robertson L | 13:01 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.02 | −0.23 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Bobby McMann C | 8:23 | 1 | −0.27 | +0.04 | −0.30 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| William Lagesson D | 15:27 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| John Tavares C | 20:24 | 2 | −0.57 | +0.05 | −0.65 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Samsonov G | 61:44 | −1.80 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.