NYI beat ANA 4–3. NYI also won the expected-goals battle 3.3 to 2.1: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Simon Holmstrom scored short-handed at 18:27 of the third, moving NYI’s win probability from 49% to 94%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ANA–NYI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 0:40 |  NYI | Kyle Palmieri from Brock Nelson, Hudson Fasching | 0–1 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 6:32 | NYI | Casey Cizikas from Cal Clutterbuck, Noah Dobson | 0–2 | 73% → 87% |
| P2 7:47 |  ANA | Troy TerryPP from Pavel Mintyukov, Leo Carlsson | 1–2 | 13% → 27% |
| P2 13:29 | ANA | Adam Henrique from Urho Vaakanainen, Brett Leason | 2–2 | 25% → 47% |
| P3 5:07 | ANA | Sam Carrick unassisted | 3–2 | 48% → 76% |
| P3 7:46 | NYI | Mathew BarzalPP from Bo Horvat, Noah Dobson | 3–3 | 23% → 52% |
| P3 18:27 | NYI | Simon HolmstromSH from Jean-Gabriel Pageau | 3–4 | 49% → 94% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Henrique C | 16:39 | 1 | +0.60 | +0.16 | +0.38 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.10 | |
| Troy Terry R | 19:38 | 1 | +0.38 | +0.13 | +0.28 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Urho Vaakanainen D | 16:41 | 1 | +0.35 | +0.25 | +0.00 | +0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Carrick C | 14:49 | 1 | +0.08 | −0.28 | +0.45 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Max Jones L | 13:24 | +0.07 | −0.05 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Mintyukov D | 18:37 | 1 | +0.05 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.18 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Radko Gudas D | 19:14 | +0.04 | +0.08 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ross Johnston L | 8:10 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.08 | +0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Leason R | 13:28 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Killorn L | 17:41 | −0.04 | +0.09 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Brock McGinn L | 10:06 | −0.07 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakob Silfverberg R | 13:58 | −0.11 | +0.04 | −0.13 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ilya Lyubushkin D | 18:52 | −0.11 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Leo Carlsson C | 17:50 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.14 | −0.09 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.05 | |
| Ryan Strome C | 14:12 | −0.23 | −0.12 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Frank Vatrano R | 17:06 | −0.24 | −0.04 | −0.22 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jackson LaCombe D | 22:50 | −0.26 | −0.35 | +0.00 | +0.12 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam Fowler D | 21:38 | −0.26 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.37 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| John Gibson G | 58:46 | −0.75 |
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Simon Holmstrom R | 12:15 | 1 | +0.85 | +0.05 | +0.85 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Casey Cizikas C | 14:29 | 1 | +0.47 | +0.19 | +0.33 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Cal Clutterbuck R | 13:39 | 1 | +0.30 | +0.15 | −0.04 | +0.18 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Hudson Fasching R | 14:13 | 1 | +0.26 | +0.20 | −0.00 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle Palmieri C | 17:41 | 1 | +0.19 | −0.13 | +0.35 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mathew Barzal C | 18:01 | 1 | +0.19 | −0.00 | +0.30 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Noah Dobson D | 26:57 | 2 | +0.17 | +0.17 | −0.08 | +0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Bo Horvat C | 17:33 | 1 | +0.09 | −0.10 | −0.12 | +0.11 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Alexander Romanov D | 22:45 | +0.08 | +0.17 | −0.00 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Julien Gauthier R | 9:39 | +0.04 | +0.07 | −0.18 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Sebastian Aho D | 18:51 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Nelson C | 17:16 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.14 | −0.14 | +0.18 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Robert Bortuzzo D | 14:00 | −0.12 | +0.09 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Reilly D | 20:37 | −0.14 | +0.05 | −0.11 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Samuel Bolduc D | 12:46 | −0.15 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 14:52 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.11 | −0.21 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pierre Engvall L | 16:31 | −0.17 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anders Lee C | 15:36 | −0.20 | +0.07 | −0.14 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Semyon Varlamov G | 60:00 | −0.97 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.