PIT beat MTL 4–3 in a shootout. PIT lost the expected-goals battle 2.8 to 4.6 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Sidney Crosby scored on the power play at 11:02 of the second, moving PIT’s win probability from 27% to 47%. Alex Nedeljkovic saved 3.3 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PIT–MTL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:24 |  MTL | David Savard unassisted | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 12:21 | MTL | Jayden Struble from Michael Pezzetta, Jesse Ylonen | 0–2 | 70% → 84% |
| P1 13:48 | PIT | Sidney Crosby from Drew O'Connor | 1–2 | 16% → 29% |
| P1 15:20 | MTL | Sean MonahanPP from Nick Suzuki, Mike Matheson | 1–3 | 71% → 84% |
| P2 5:36 | PIT | Jake GuentzelPP from Sidney Crosby, Erik Karlsson | 2–3 | 13% → 27% |
| P2 11:02 | PIT | Sidney CrosbyPP from Erik Karlsson, Evgeni Malkin | 3–3 | 27% → 47% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sidney Crosby C | 22:06 | 2 | 1 | +2.19 | −0.27 | +1.53 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.84 |
| Jansen Harkins C | 4:24 | +1.02 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +1.06 | ||
| Lars Eller C | 19:22 | +0.81 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +1.06 | ||
| Kris Letang D | 25:38 | +0.20 | −0.29 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.71 | ||
| Radim Zohorna L | 12:21 | +0.02 | +0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.37 | +0.01 | −0.44 | ||
| Pierre-Olivier Joseph D | 11:14 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| John Ludvig D | 12:25 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Gruden L | 7:16 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Guentzel C | 23:37 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.37 | +0.72 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.44 | |
| Ryan Graves D | 21:29 | −0.13 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Marcus Pettersson D | 25:07 | −0.49 | −0.30 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Reilly Smith R | 19:57 | −0.50 | +0.02 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.44 | ||
| Drew O'Connor L | 18:09 | 1 | −0.54 | −0.22 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Valtteri Puustinen R | 15:36 | −0.60 | +0.11 | −0.28 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.44 | ||
| Evgeni Malkin C | 19:33 | 1 | −0.82 | +0.03 | −0.26 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.44 | |
| Jeff Carter C | 11:53 | −0.94 | −0.25 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.44 | ||
| Vinnie Hinostroza C | 15:00 | −0.98 | −0.10 | −0.43 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.44 | ||
| Erik Karlsson D | 27:22 | 2 | −1.24 | −0.14 | −0.60 | +0.01 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.44 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Nedeljkovic G | 65:00 | +3.31 |
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Monahan C | 21:10 | 1 | +2.05 | +0.31 | +0.70 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +1.06 | |
| David Savard D | 23:27 | 1 | +1.07 | +0.32 | +0.72 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Cole Caufield R | 23:07 | +0.94 | +0.41 | −0.88 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.56 | +0.01 | +0.84 | ||
| Nick Suzuki C | 26:25 | 1 | +0.84 | +0.33 | −0.24 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.71 | |
| Jayden Struble D | 13:58 | 1 | +0.68 | −0.00 | +0.70 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Justin Barron D | 19:03 | +0.04 | +0.08 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Kaiden Guhle D | 19:07 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Mitchell Stephens C | 6:49 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Johnathan Kovacevic D | 14:38 | −0.23 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jesse Ylonen R | 7:26 | 1 | −0.44 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.44 | |
| Mike Matheson D | 32:21 | 1 | −0.45 | +0.58 | −0.56 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.44 | |
| Michael Pezzetta L | 6:12 | 1 | −0.46 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.44 | |
| Brendan Gallagher R | 12:44 | −0.48 | +0.02 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.44 | ||
| Christian Dvorak C | 16:34 | −0.61 | −0.06 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.44 | ||
| Joel Armia R | 15:30 | −0.66 | +0.01 | −0.20 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.44 | ||
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 22:04 | −0.74 | +0.32 | −0.43 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.44 | ||
| Josh Anderson R | 17:32 | −0.93 | +0.14 | −0.61 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.44 | ||
| Jake Evans C | 17:26 | −0.95 | +0.11 | −0.60 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.44 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Samuel Montembeault G | 64:30 | −0.16 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.