DET beat STL 6–4. Expected goals were close to even (DET 3.6, STL 3.5), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Robby Fabbri scored at 6:38 of the third, moving DET’s win probability from 48% to 77%. Jordan Binnington allowed 1.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DET–STL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:56 | STL | Brandon Saad from Pavel Buchnevich, Kasperi Kapanen | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 13:33 |  DET | Jake Walman unassisted | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P1 15:31 | DET | Jonatan Berggren from Jeff Petry, Daniel Sprong | 2–1 | 47% → 65% |
| P2 1:40 | STL | Kevin Hayes from Nick Leddy, Colton Parayko | 2–2 | 34% → 53% |
| P2 2:11 | STL | Kevin Hayes unassisted | 2–3 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 9:47 | DET | Moritz Seider from Michael Rasmussen | 3–3 | 26% → 47% |
| P2 16:53 | STL | Marco ScandellaSH unassisted | 3–4 | 52% → 75% |
| P3 0:48 | DET | Lucas RaymondPP from Joe Veleno, Patrick Kane | 4–4 | 23% → 48% |
| P3 6:38 | DET | Robby Fabbri from Lucas Raymond, Andrew Copp | 5–4 | 48% → 77% |
| P3 18:21 | DET | Michael RasmussenEN from Joe Veleno | 6–4 | 93% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonatan Berggren R | 10:12 | 1 | +0.99 | +0.01 | +0.80 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Lucas Raymond L | 21:02 | 1 | 1 | +0.95 | +0.11 | +0.63 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Robby Fabbri C | 17:34 | 1 | +0.85 | −0.00 | +0.68 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Jake Walman D | 18:50 | 1 | +0.57 | −0.23 | +0.84 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Moritz Seider D | 17:04 | 1 | +0.54 | +0.01 | +0.50 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Olli Maatta D | 12:26 | +0.18 | +0.19 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Rasmussen C | 17:50 | 1 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.21 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 |
| Patrick Kane R | 20:01 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.09 | −0.28 | +0.10 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Daniel Sprong R | 12:15 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.28 | −0.23 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jeff Petry D | 15:12 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Christian Fischer R | 10:40 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Justin Holl D | 15:00 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 15:19 | −0.10 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Joe Veleno C | 23:06 | 2 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Ben Chiarot D | 18:01 | −0.25 | +0.02 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Austin Czarnik C | 8:54 | −0.39 | −0.00 | −0.36 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Alex DeBrincat R | 20:12 | −0.42 | +0.07 | −0.52 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Andrew Copp C | 20:22 | 1 | −0.49 | +0.03 | −0.41 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.06 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ville Husso G | 60:00 | −0.30 |
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Hayes R | 15:36 | 2 | +1.70 | −0.03 | +1.50 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.04 | |
| Marco Scandella D | 12:09 | 1 | +0.98 | −0.05 | +0.84 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Saad L | 15:17 | 1 | +0.59 | +0.03 | +0.57 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Torey Krug D | 19:28 | −0.02 | +0.07 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sammy Blais L | 5:28 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jordan Kyrou R | 16:19 | −0.04 | +0.09 | −0.15 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oskar Sundqvist C | 18:00 | −0.10 | −0.10 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Alexey Toropchenko R | 9:03 | −0.16 | −0.07 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Hugh McGing L | 5:07 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Leddy D | 24:32 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.20 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Scott Perunovich D | 13:27 | −0.28 | +0.00 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Neighbours L | 18:42 | −0.28 | +0.03 | −0.29 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Robert Thomas C | 20:47 | −0.32 | +0.01 | −0.34 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Justin Faulk D | 24:08 | −0.40 | −0.07 | −0.32 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 19:58 | 1 | −0.42 | −0.07 | −0.14 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.05 | |
| Colton Parayko D | 23:13 | 1 | −0.45 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.37 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden Schenn C | 14:25 | −0.47 | +0.06 | −0.36 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Kasperi Kapanen R | 16:11 | 1 | −0.47 | −0.11 | −0.37 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jordan Binnington G | 59:37 | −1.28 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.