COL beat CGY 6–5. COL also won the expected-goals battle 3.2 to 2.9: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Nathan MacKinnon scored at 15:30 of the third, moving COL’s win probability from 51% to 89%. Alexandar Georgiev allowed 3.1 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CGY–COL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 13:46 | CGY | Nazem Kadri from Blake Coleman | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 18:14 | COL | Tomas Tatar from Ross Colton, Fredrik Olofsson | 1–1 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 1:43 | COL | Cale MakarPP from Mikko Rantanen, Nathan MacKinnon | 1–2 | 54% → 72% |
| P2 5:14 | CGY | Andrew Mangiapane from Nazem Kadri, Dennis Gilbert | 2–2 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 13:21 | CGY | Blake Coleman from Mikael Backlund, Dennis Gilbert | 3–2 | 47% → 70% |
| P2 14:57 | COL | Ben Meyers from Andrew Cogliano, Sam Malinski | 3–3 | 30% → 53% |
| P2 16:19 | CGY | Connor Zary from MacKenzie Weegar | 4–3 | 47% → 71% |
| P2 18:34 | CGY | Yegor Sharangovich from Noah Hanifin, Rasmus Andersson | 5–3 | 72% → 89% |
| P3 11:20 | COL | Ross Colton from Josh Manson, Bowen Byram | 5–4 | 4% → 18% |
| P3 13:31 | COL | Mikko Rantanen from Valeri Nichushkin, Cale Makar | 5–5 | 16% → 51% |
| P3 15:30 | COL | Nathan MacKinnon from Valeri Nichushkin, Mikko Rantanen | 5–6 | 51% → 89% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nazem Kadri C | 17:54 | 1 | 1 | +0.64 | +0.04 | +0.45 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.05 |
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 16:59 | 1 | +0.63 | +0.12 | +0.52 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Yegor Sharangovich C | 18:59 | 1 | +0.60 | +0.05 | +0.59 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Blake Coleman L | 15:27 | 1 | 1 | +0.58 | −0.04 | +0.62 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Connor Zary C | 14:19 | 1 | +0.53 | −0.08 | +0.62 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Elias Lindholm C | 20:23 | +0.10 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Dillon Dube C | 14:06 | +0.05 | +0.09 | −0.20 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 16:44 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Chris Tanev D | 0:15 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Andersson D | 29:37 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.11 | −0.13 | −0.02 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ilya Solovyov D | 16:18 | −0.02 | +0.18 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 25:08 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| A.J. Greer L | 8:11 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Ruzicka C | 6:44 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Dennis Gilbert D | 20:26 | 2 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Martin Pospisil C | 5:43 | −0.24 | −0.02 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Noah Hanifin D | 25:43 | 1 | −0.65 | −0.27 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.37 | +0.00 | |
| Mikael Backlund C | 19:33 | 1 | −0.67 | −0.14 | −0.28 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.06 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dan Vladar G | 58:21 | −2.62 |
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 26:19 | 1 | 1 | +1.16 | +0.01 | +0.66 | +0.19 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.13 |
| Ross Colton C | 11:28 | 1 | 1 | +0.98 | −0.09 | +0.70 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.37 | +0.01 |
| Cale Makar D | 23:20 | 1 | 1 | +0.78 | −0.01 | +0.70 | +0.05 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Ben Meyers C | 7:32 | 1 | +0.76 | −0.03 | +0.80 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Tomas Tatar L | 9:58 | 1 | +0.58 | +0.00 | +0.58 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andrew Cogliano C | 9:59 | 1 | +0.25 | +0.12 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Bowen Byram D | 22:21 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.21 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Fredrik Olofsson L | 11:21 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Mikko Rantanen R | 26:22 | 1 | 2 | +0.07 | −0.11 | +0.18 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 |
| Josh Manson D | 19:28 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.06 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Malinski D | 10:22 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonathan Drouin L | 14:18 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Logan O'Connor R | 14:02 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.13 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Devon Toews D | 23:39 | −0.17 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Johnson D | 14:18 | −0.22 | −0.03 | −0.18 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Johansen C | 10:38 | −0.25 | −0.04 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 25:50 | 2 | −0.49 | +0.07 | −0.37 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Miles Wood L | 12:45 | −0.51 | −0.18 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ivan Prosvetov G | 20:00 | +0.98 |
| Alexandar Georgiev G | 40:00 | −3.12 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.