NYI beat TOR 4–3 in overtime. NYI lost the expected-goals battle 3.2 to 4.1 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Bo Horvat scored at 0:46 of overtime, moving NYI’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Ilya Sorokin saved 1.1 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TOR–NYI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:50 | TOR | Auston MatthewsPP from Mitch Marner, William Nylander | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 9:20 |  NYI | Brock Nelson from Kyle Palmieri, Noah Dobson | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P1 18:33 | NYI | Casey Cizikas from Cal Clutterbuck, Hudson Fasching | 1–2 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 1:10 | NYI | Kyle Palmieri from Brock Nelson, Noah Dobson | 1–3 | 72% → 86% |
| P2 7:43 | TOR | John Tavares from Conor Timmins, Jake McCabe | 2–3 | 12% → 27% |
| P3 19:53 | TOR | Morgan RiellyPP from John Tavares, William Nylander | 3–3 | 3% → 49% |
| OT 0:46 | NYI | Bo Horvat from Mathew Barzal, Noah Dobson | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch Marner R | 19:32 | 1 | +1.00 | +0.77 | −0.00 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Morgan Rielly D | 24:05 | 1 | +0.98 | +0.45 | +0.53 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| John Tavares C | 17:49 | 1 | 1 | +0.93 | +0.63 | +0.28 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Auston Matthews C | 21:05 | 1 | +0.43 | +0.76 | −0.36 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| William Nylander R | 19:32 | 2 | +0.37 | +0.62 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jake McCabe D | 19:53 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.11 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 15:43 | +0.04 | +0.64 | −0.59 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| TJ Brodie D | 19:57 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Timmins D | 17:57 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matthew Knies L | 17:05 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Benoit D | 19:05 | −0.11 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Lagesson D | 17:00 | −0.13 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Domi C | 12:06 | −0.15 | −0.10 | −0.06 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nicholas Robertson L | 12:51 | −0.15 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Reaves R | 7:59 | −0.16 | −0.10 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Kampf C | 12:19 | −0.28 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.04 | ||
| Noah Gregor L | 12:05 | −0.35 | −0.07 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Tyler Bertuzzi L | 16:10 | −0.38 | −0.08 | −0.28 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Samsonov G | 58:51 | −1.15 |
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Nelson C | 15:47 | 1 | 1 | +0.56 | −0.09 | +0.58 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.08 |
| Kyle Palmieri C | 16:12 | 1 | 1 | +0.52 | −0.33 | +0.83 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Casey Cizikas C | 15:26 | 1 | +0.46 | −0.29 | +0.76 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Bo Horvat C | 18:08 | 1 | +0.23 | −0.34 | +0.64 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Samuel Bolduc D | 14:25 | +0.08 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Hudson Fasching R | 13:40 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pierre Engvall L | 15:16 | +0.03 | +0.09 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Mathew Barzal C | 19:19 | 1 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Robert Bortuzzo D | 11:33 | −0.05 | +0.14 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Dobson D | 26:03 | 3 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Romanov D | 24:17 | −0.20 | −0.11 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Holmstrom R | 12:29 | −0.24 | −0.03 | −0.20 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anders Lee C | 16:17 | −0.31 | +0.13 | −0.44 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Julien Gauthier R | 10:04 | −0.37 | +0.04 | −0.40 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Reilly D | 19:49 | −0.44 | −0.36 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cal Clutterbuck R | 14:43 | 1 | −0.47 | −0.29 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Scott Mayfield D | 22:41 | −0.61 | −0.63 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 15:06 | −0.62 | −0.52 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Sorokin G | 60:46 | +1.15 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.