VGK beat SJS 5–4 in a shootout. VGK also won the expected-goals battle 3.2 to 2.5: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Mike Hoffman scored on the power play at 19:21 of the third, moving SJS’s win probability from 4% to 49%. Kaapo Kahkonen allowed 1.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SJS–VGK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:29 | SJS | Mario Ferraro from Kyle Burroughs, Mikael Granlund | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P2 5:34 |  VGK | Jonathan Marchessault from Ben Hutton | 1–1 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 15:44 | VGK | Chandler StephensonPP from Alex Pietrangelo, Mark Stone | 1–2 | 54% → 75% |
| P3 1:43 | VGK | Brayden McNabb from Jack Eichel, Kaedan Korczak | 1–3 | 78% → 93% |
| P3 3:56 | SJS | Mike HoffmanPP from Mikael Granlund, Kaapo Kahkonen | 2–3 | 7% → 21% |
| P3 9:23 | VGK | Jonathan Marchessault from Chandler Stephenson, Zach Whitecloud | 2–4 | 82% → 96% |
| P3 16:15 | SJS | Calen Addison from Justin Bailey, Filip Zadina | 3–4 | 1% → 10% |
| P3 19:21 | SJS | Mike HoffmanPP from Tomas Hertl, Alexander Barabanov | 4–4 | 4% → 49% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Hoffman C | 15:59 | 2 | +1.76 | −0.06 | +1.64 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | |
| Mario Ferraro D | 23:18 | 1 | +0.86 | −0.05 | +0.90 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Calen Addison D | 17:01 | 1 | +0.58 | −0.20 | +0.80 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Justin Bailey R | 10:37 | 1 | +0.14 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anthony Duclair L | 5:50 | +0.03 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Hertl C | 28:46 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.06 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.07 | +0.00 | |
| Jan Rutta D | 19:45 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Givani Smith R | 5:03 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Barabanov L | 25:03 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.07 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nico Sturm C | 15:51 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.09 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Okhotiuk D | 13:55 | −0.30 | −0.04 | −0.26 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Filip Zadina R | 12:32 | 1 | −0.38 | −0.05 | −0.29 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | |
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 24:25 | −0.42 | −0.17 | −0.27 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Henry Thrun D | 16:16 | −0.43 | −0.16 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Mikael Granlund C | 21:41 | 2 | −0.47 | −0.10 | −0.09 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.35 | |
| Kyle Burroughs D | 19:24 | 1 | −0.48 | −0.02 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Jacob MacDonald D | 14:52 | −0.57 | −0.03 | −0.35 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Kevin Labanc R | 19:02 | −0.73 | −0.06 | −0.38 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.30 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Kaapo Kahkonen G | 63:27 | −1.67 |
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 17:06 | 2 | +1.45 | +0.18 | +0.97 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.31 | |
| Brayden McNabb D | 23:24 | 1 | +1.06 | +0.09 | +0.77 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Chandler Stephenson C | 18:53 | 1 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.23 | +0.51 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 |
| Jack Eichel C | 23:52 | 1 | +0.50 | +0.05 | −0.36 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.08 | +0.84 | |
| Alex Pietrangelo D | 25:47 | 1 | +0.26 | +0.22 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Brett Howden C | 12:57 | +0.21 | +0.22 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| William Carrier L | 11:09 | +0.09 | +0.01 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Whitecloud D | 16:52 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.11 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Nicolas Hague D | 18:01 | +0.08 | +0.10 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Kaedan Korczak D | 18:50 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Michael Amadio R | 11:56 | +0.04 | +0.08 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Stone R | 23:42 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.06 | −0.11 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Keegan Kolesar R | 13:08 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Paul Cotter C | 10:35 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Roy C | 17:08 | −0.21 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 | −0.30 | ||
| William Karlsson C | 15:38 | −0.30 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.03 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Hutton D | 15:13 | 1 | −0.43 | +0.01 | −0.43 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Ivan Barbashev L | 14:52 | −0.45 | −0.01 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jiri Patera G | 65:00 | −0.47 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.