NJD beat CGY 4–2. Expected goals were close to even (NJD 2.4, CGY 2.2), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Jesper Bratt scored at 12:31 of the second, moving NJD’s win probability from 47% to 70%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NJD–CGY | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 19:41 |  CGY | Yegor SharangovichSH from Blake Coleman, Ilya Solovyov | 0–1 | 52% → 71% |
| P2 3:28 | NJD | Nico Hischier from Jesper Bratt, Luke Hughes | 1–1 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 12:31 | NJD | Jesper Bratt unassisted | 2–1 | 47% → 70% |
| P3 8:59 | NJD | Alexander Holtz unassisted | 3–1 | 79% → 95% |
| P3 14:46 | CGY | Nazem Kadri from Rasmus Andersson, Noah Hanifin | 3–2 | 2% → 14% |
| P3 19:22 | NJD | Nico HischierEN from John Marino | 4–2 | 95% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Holtz R | 13:04 | 1 | +0.70 | −0.02 | +0.72 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nico Hischier C | 17:41 | 2 | +0.69 | +0.04 | +0.45 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Jesper Bratt L | 18:12 | 1 | 1 | +0.37 | +0.05 | +0.32 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| John Marino D | 20:05 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.08 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Bahl D | 13:30 | +0.07 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael McLeod C | 13:50 | +0.04 | +0.08 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Jonas Siegenthaler D | 22:54 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Curtis Lazar C | 14:04 | +0.03 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nathan Bastian R | 11:33 | +0.02 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Timo Meier R | 14:21 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Simon Nemec D | 18:27 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ondrej Palat L | 15:54 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Erik Haula L | 14:20 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Colin Miller D | 18:23 | −0.02 | +0.04 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Toffoli C | 17:26 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Luke Hughes D | 23:17 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dawson Mercer C | 13:30 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.14 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jack Hughes C | 19:37 | −0.54 | +0.01 | −0.55 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Vitek Vanecek G | 59:52 | +0.09 |
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nazem Kadri C | 18:02 | 1 | +0.63 | −0.07 | +0.69 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Yegor Sharangovich C | 15:02 | 1 | +0.55 | +0.05 | +0.51 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Ilya Solovyov D | 15:28 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dillon Dube C | 9:04 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dennis Gilbert D | 12:47 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Tanev D | 20:00 | −0.06 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| A.J. Greer L | 8:44 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Elias Lindholm C | 19:54 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 23:09 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Zary C | 18:17 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Ruzicka C | 9:27 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 14:17 | −0.12 | +0.00 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 16:40 | −0.14 | −0.05 | −0.11 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Coronato R | 13:30 | −0.17 | −0.04 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Noah Hanifin D | 23:26 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.08 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rasmus Andersson D | 25:22 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Mikael Backlund C | 17:01 | −0.29 | −0.09 | −0.21 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Blake Coleman L | 17:08 | 1 | −0.41 | −0.08 | −0.32 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dustin Wolf G | 58:42 | −0.48 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.