FLA beat PIT 3–1. FLA also won the expected-goals battle 3.6 to 2.8: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Eetu Luostarinen scored at 6:10 of the third, moving FLA’s win probability from 52% to 80%. Sergei Bobrovsky saved 2.2 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PIT–FLA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 8:05 |  PIT | Reilly Smith from Evgeni Malkin, Valtteri Puustinen | 1–0 | 47% → 68% |
| P2 17:04 |  FLA | Oliver Ekman-Larsson from Anton Lundell, Carter Verhaeghe | 1–1 | 29% → 53% |
| P3 6:10 | FLA | Eetu Luostarinen from Evan Rodrigues, Anton Lundell | 1–2 | 52% → 80% |
| P3 19:33 | FLA | Aleksander BarkovEN from Sam Reinhart, Aaron Ekblad | 1–3 | 97% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reilly Smith R | 16:56 | 1 | +0.17 | −0.10 | +0.27 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jansen Harkins C | 7:07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ryan Shea D | 11:26 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Gruden L | 5:56 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Erik Karlsson D | 25:38 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.06 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| John Ludvig D | 11:30 | −0.12 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Carter C | 16:38 | −0.12 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Ryan Graves D | 20:01 | −0.12 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc Johnstone R | 7:19 | −0.16 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Valtteri Puustinen R | 14:18 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.13 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Vinnie Hinostroza C | 16:56 | −0.25 | −0.03 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kris Letang D | 24:47 | −0.26 | −0.22 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Pettersson D | 22:13 | −0.29 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Sidney Crosby C | 21:02 | −0.37 | −0.12 | −0.46 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Lars Eller C | 17:06 | −0.42 | −0.04 | −0.36 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgeni Malkin C | 20:09 | 1 | −0.43 | −0.16 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Jake Guentzel C | 21:26 | −0.49 | −0.06 | −0.61 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Drew O'Connor L | 17:07 | −0.49 | −0.18 | −0.27 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Tristan Jarry G | 58:25 | +1.54 |
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 16:16 | 1 | +0.97 | +0.29 | +0.66 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Eetu Luostarinen C | 17:34 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.29 | +0.45 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Evan Rodrigues C | 13:59 | 1 | +0.31 | +0.14 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Dmitry Kulikov D | 14:28 | +0.22 | +0.24 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Stenlund C | 10:49 | +0.12 | +0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Aaron Ekblad D | 21:52 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.17 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Gustav Forsling D | 22:24 | +0.03 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonah Gadjovich L | 6:37 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Niko Mikkola D | 21:00 | −0.01 | +0.17 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Montour D | 22:02 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Tkachuk L | 16:54 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.05 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Lomberg L | 8:49 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Reinhart C | 18:22 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Sam Bennett C | 16:09 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Nick Cousins C | 15:35 | −0.22 | +0.14 | −0.34 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Aleksander Barkov C | 18:06 | 1 | −0.45 | −0.13 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Anton Lundell C | 16:35 | 2 | −0.59 | +0.28 | −0.70 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.02 | |
| Carter Verhaeghe C | 16:29 | 1 | −0.64 | +0.15 | −0.59 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky G | 60:00 | +2.15 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.