NJD beat SEA 2–1. NJD lost the expected-goals battle 1.8 to 3.9 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Simon Nemec scored at 9:08 of the second, moving NJD’s win probability from 47% to 68%. Akira Schmid saved 3.1 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NJD–SEA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 17:14 |  NJD | Ondrej Palat from John Marino, Nico Hischier | 1–0 | 47% → 65% |
| P2 7:12 |  SEA | Tye Kartye from Alexander Wennberg, Andre Burakovsky | 1–1 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 9:08 | NJD | Simon Nemec from Jesper Bratt, Jonas Siegenthaler | 2–1 | 47% → 68% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ondrej Palat L | 16:34 | 1 | +0.73 | −0.05 | +0.57 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Simon Nemec D | 19:42 | 1 | +0.49 | −0.21 | +0.71 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael McLeod C | 12:34 | +0.09 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.05 | ||
| John Marino D | 21:36 | 1 | +0.01 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Curtis Lazar C | 10:45 | −0.04 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colin Miller D | 15:09 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nico Hischier C | 18:15 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jesper Bratt L | 15:57 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonas Siegenthaler D | 22:27 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brendan Smith D | 8:34 | −0.18 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Hughes D | 20:16 | −0.18 | −0.12 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Holtz R | 12:07 | −0.19 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Bahl D | 17:25 | −0.24 | −0.25 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Toffoli C | 16:52 | −0.29 | −0.20 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Haula L | 15:59 | −0.35 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Dawson Mercer C | 16:31 | −0.36 | −0.20 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Timo Meier R | 16:15 | −0.40 | −0.26 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jack Hughes C | 19:02 | −0.51 | −0.23 | −0.26 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Akira Schmid G | 60:00 | +3.10 |
SEA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tye Kartye L | 14:12 | 1 | +0.62 | +0.13 | +0.50 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 19:55 | +0.21 | +0.36 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Devin Shore C | 6:40 | +0.18 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Jordan Eberle R | 19:01 | +0.12 | +0.27 | −0.17 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Will Borgen D | 14:26 | +0.11 | +0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 16:37 | +0.09 | +0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eeli Tolvanen R | 15:18 | +0.02 | +0.25 | −0.21 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Tanev L | 12:02 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryker Evans D | 17:50 | −0.03 | +0.16 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vince Dunn D | 23:07 | −0.05 | +0.30 | −0.20 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brian Dumoulin D | 19:09 | −0.09 | +0.16 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Andre Burakovsky L | 9:08 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Wennberg C | 18:03 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.27 | −0.34 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Adam Larsson D | 25:12 | −0.18 | +0.17 | −0.34 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matty Beniers C | 19:11 | −0.22 | +0.13 | −0.50 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | −0.05 | ||
| Yanni Gourde C | 17:58 | −0.23 | +0.16 | −0.47 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Jared McCann L | 19:08 | −0.26 | +0.20 | −0.50 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Kailer Yamamoto R | 9:06 | −0.30 | +0.06 | −0.15 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Philipp Grubauer G | 57:57 | −0.46 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.