DAL beat WSH 5–4 in a shootout. Expected goals were close to even (DAL 3.0, WSH 2.8), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Roope Hintz scored at 13:47 of the third, moving DAL’s win probability from 13% to 49%. Charlie Lindgren allowed 1.0 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DAL–WSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:11 | WSH | Aliaksei Protas from Connor McMichael, Nick Jensen | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 15:38 |  DAL | Tyler Seguin from Sam Steel, Miro Heiskanen | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 4:31 | WSH | Dylan Strome from Tom Wilson, Trevor van Riemsdyk | 1–2 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 7:14 | WSH | Evgeny Kuznetsov from Matthew Phillips, Aliaksei Protas | 1–3 | 73% → 87% |
| P2 14:19 | DAL | Mason Marchment from Matt Duchene | 2–3 | 10% → 25% |
| P3 1:51 | DAL | Roope HintzPP from Jamie Benn, Jason Robertson | 3–3 | 23% → 48% |
| P3 9:08 | WSH | Dylan StromePP from Anthony Mantha, Alex Ovechkin | 3–4 | 53% → 82% |
| P3 13:47 | DAL | Roope Hintz from Jason Robertson, Joe Pavelski | 4–4 | 13% → 49% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roope Hintz C | 17:28 | 2 | +1.23 | +0.07 | +1.32 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.02 | +0.00 | |
| Jason Robertson L | 18:14 | 2 | +0.82 | +0.09 | −0.04 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.71 | |
| Mason Marchment L | 15:33 | 1 | +0.72 | −0.06 | +0.75 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Seguin C | 17:05 | 1 | +0.62 | −0.04 | +0.66 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | |
| Jamie Benn L | 13:57 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.34 | −0.20 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Suter D | 19:58 | +0.09 | +0.11 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jani Hakanpää D | 20:26 | +0.06 | +0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Esa Lindell D | 20:20 | −0.00 | +0.05 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Nils Lundkvist D | 15:01 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Thomas Harley D | 22:31 | −0.09 | +0.17 | −0.24 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Evgenii Dadonov L | 12:30 | −0.10 | +0.10 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Wyatt Johnston C | 15:39 | −0.12 | +0.25 | −0.40 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | ||
| Craig Smith C | 11:45 | −0.13 | −0.10 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joe Pavelski C | 18:19 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.13 | −0.31 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | |
| Miro Heiskanen D | 26:34 | 1 | −0.14 | +0.14 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Sam Steel C | 14:51 | 1 | −0.29 | −0.07 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | |
| Radek Faksa C | 13:47 | −0.49 | −0.17 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Duchene C | 17:47 | 1 | −0.58 | −0.11 | −0.40 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.09 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Scott Wedgewood G | 65:00 | −0.24 |
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Strome C | 18:55 | 2 | +1.39 | +0.04 | +1.22 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.37 | +0.02 | −0.27 | |
| Aliaksei Protas L | 15:39 | 1 | 1 | +0.48 | −0.23 | +0.75 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 |
| Evgeny Kuznetsov C | 20:57 | 1 | +0.36 | +0.02 | +0.62 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.30 | |
| Nicolas Aube-Kubel R | 13:05 | +0.07 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 18:31 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Matthew Phillips R | 11:40 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Martin Fehérváry D | 20:06 | −0.01 | +0.05 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Hendrix Lapierre C | 14:04 | −0.04 | +0.03 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Edmundson D | 14:58 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Nick Jensen D | 17:29 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.05 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Rasmus Sandin D | 23:02 | −0.15 | −0.09 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Nic Dowd C | 15:12 | −0.16 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | ||
| Beck Malenstyn L | 14:46 | −0.16 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor McMichael L | 16:40 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.07 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.08 | +0.00 | |
| Anthony Mantha R | 14:20 | 1 | −0.33 | −0.13 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tom Wilson R | 19:55 | 1 | −0.38 | +0.02 | −0.23 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| John Carlson D | 27:37 | −0.48 | −0.24 | −0.25 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Alex Ovechkin L | 17:49 | 1 | −0.76 | −0.14 | −0.36 | +0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.31 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Charlie Lindgren G | 65:00 | −1.04 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.