TOR beat OTT 4–3. TOR lost the expected-goals battle 2.1 to 3.2 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: David Kampf scored at 17:40 of the second, moving TOR’s win probability from 47% to 71%. Anton Forsberg allowed 2.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TOR–OTT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 19:34 | OTT | Josh Norris from Jakob Chychrun | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 1:42 |  TOR | Mitch Marner from Morgan Rielly, TJ Brodie | 1–1 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 17:40 | TOR | David Kampf from John Tavares, Jake McCabe | 2–1 | 47% → 71% |
| P3 3:35 | TOR | Calle Jarnkrok from Max Domi, Nicholas Robertson | 3–1 | 75% → 92% |
| P3 5:14 | OTT | Jacob Bernard-Docker from Drake Batherson, Tim Stützle | 3–2 | 8% → 24% |
| P3 13:03 | TOR | William Nylander from Jake McCabe, TJ Brodie | 4–2 | 84% → 97% |
| P3 18:07 | OTT | Claude GirouxPP from Jake Sanderson | 4–3 | 0% → 7% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch Marner R | 20:03 | 1 | +0.82 | −0.02 | +0.80 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 14:29 | 1 | +0.78 | +0.02 | +0.76 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| William Nylander R | 19:34 | 1 | +0.70 | −0.04 | +0.74 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| David Kampf C | 13:16 | 1 | +0.36 | −0.05 | +0.44 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Conor Timmins D | 18:29 | +0.06 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicholas Robertson L | 9:16 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| TJ Brodie D | 22:40 | 2 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| John Tavares C | 18:10 | 1 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Max Domi C | 11:50 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.04 | −0.10 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Maxime Lajoie D | 10:28 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake McCabe D | 25:08 | 2 | −0.04 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Bertuzzi L | 16:44 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Reaves R | 7:08 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Knies L | 17:06 | −0.10 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Auston Matthews C | 20:13 | −0.16 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Noah Gregor L | 11:18 | −0.19 | −0.02 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Morgan Rielly D | 23:10 | 1 | −0.23 | +0.02 | −0.25 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Simon Benoit D | 18:07 | −0.29 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joseph Woll G | 50:22 | +0.74 |
| Martin Jones G | 9:38 | +0.17 |
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Bernard-Docker D | 18:09 | 1 | +0.89 | −0.01 | +0.91 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Claude Giroux R | 19:10 | 1 | +0.81 | −0.05 | +0.83 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Josh Norris C | 18:20 | 1 | +0.44 | −0.02 | +0.33 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Artem Zub D | 22:19 | +0.09 | +0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zack MacEwen C | 4:34 | +0.04 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Parker Kelly C | 7:07 | +0.04 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tim Stützle C | 23:22 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.18 | −0.28 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.19 | −0.03 | |
| Erik Brannstrom D | 20:22 | +0.04 | +0.13 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drake Batherson R | 20:06 | 1 | +0.00 | +0.18 | −0.19 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Sanderson D | 22:04 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Travis Hamonic D | 15:26 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rourke Chartier C | 5:30 | −0.19 | +0.10 | −0.28 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakob Chychrun D | 19:02 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 18:37 | −0.23 | +0.13 | −0.39 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ridly Greig C | 15:08 | −0.36 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.04 | ||
| Dominik Kubalik L | 15:17 | −0.40 | −0.17 | −0.22 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brady Tkachuk L | 18:46 | −0.50 | −0.02 | −0.51 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Mathieu Joseph R | 15:59 | −0.68 | −0.12 | −0.56 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Anton Forsberg G | 58:42 | −2.37 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.