SJS beat DET 6–5 in overtime. SJS also won the expected-goals battle 4.0 to 3.0: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Mikael Granlund scored at 0:37 of overtime, moving SJS’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Mackenzie Blackwood allowed 2.0 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SJS–DET | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 9:05 |  DET | Klim Kostin unassisted | 0–1 | 53% → 74% |
| P2 12:51 | DET | Michael Rasmussen from Daniel Sprong | 0–2 | 75% → 89% |
| P2 13:04 | DET | Michael Rasmussen from Ben Chiarot, Andrew Copp | 0–3 | 89% → 97% |
| P2 13:40 | DET | Lucas Raymond from Ben Chiarot, Robby Fabbri | 0–4 | 97% → 100% |
| P2 14:08 |  SJS | Tomas HertlSH from William Eklund, Jan Rutta | 1–4 | 0% → 3% |
| P2 14:46 | SJS | Fabian ZetterlundSH from Jan Rutta, Mikael Granlund | 2–4 | 3% → 10% |
| P2 15:52 | SJS | Nico Sturm from Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Kyle Burroughs | 3–4 | 10% → 25% |
| P2 19:37 | SJS | Nico Sturm from Justin Bailey, Kevin Labanc | 4–4 | 23% → 48% |
| P3 13:20 | DET | Dylan Larkin from Lucas Raymond, Robby Fabbri | 4–5 | 51% → 86% |
| P3 18:31 | SJS | Tomas HertlPP from Mikael Granlund, Alexander Barabanov | 5–5 | 6% → 50% |
| OT 0:37 | SJS | Mikael Granlund from Fabian Zetterlund | 6–5 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Sturm C | 15:59 | 2 | +1.19 | −0.23 | +1.48 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Tomas Hertl C | 20:49 | 2 | +1.08 | +0.28 | +0.80 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 19:00 | 1 | 1 | +1.07 | +0.36 | +0.71 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Mikael Granlund C | 18:47 | 1 | 2 | +1.00 | +0.41 | +0.57 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Calen Addison D | 16:21 | +0.21 | +0.29 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mario Ferraro D | 26:06 | +0.12 | +0.17 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Hoffman C | 9:49 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 12:23 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Anthony Duclair L | 15:27 | −0.12 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jan Rutta D | 20:04 | 2 | −0.12 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nikita Okhotiuk D | 15:56 | −0.13 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Burroughs D | 21:22 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.06 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Labanc R | 14:12 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.17 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Justin Bailey R | 14:10 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.21 | −0.39 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.37 | +0.00 | |
| Filip Zadina R | 9:31 | −0.23 | −0.18 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Alexander Barabanov L | 17:54 | 1 | −0.25 | +0.11 | −0.32 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jacob MacDonald D | 9:48 | −0.26 | −0.16 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Eklund L | 19:38 | 1 | −0.65 | +0.38 | −0.82 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Kaapo Kahkonen G | 25:32 | −0.14 |
| Mackenzie Blackwood G | 33:40 | −2.04 |
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Rasmussen C | 14:17 | 2 | +1.47 | −0.11 | +1.58 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Klim Kostin C | 9:11 | 1 | +0.60 | +0.08 | +0.53 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Larkin C | 22:10 | 1 | +0.47 | −0.20 | +0.62 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Lucas Raymond L | 16:45 | 1 | 1 | +0.42 | −0.20 | +0.62 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Justin Holl D | 13:39 | +0.19 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Petry D | 20:28 | +0.09 | +0.12 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex DeBrincat R | 16:50 | +0.07 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Fischer R | 9:11 | −0.03 | +0.09 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Robby Fabbri C | 16:14 | 2 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joe Veleno C | 17:15 | −0.08 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 20:04 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Kane R | 16:33 | −0.13 | +0.07 | −0.24 | +0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Chiarot D | 19:37 | 2 | −0.18 | +0.10 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| David Perron L | 15:16 | −0.18 | −0.08 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Moritz Seider D | 22:41 | −0.21 | −0.25 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Daniel Sprong R | 10:16 | 1 | −0.29 | +0.00 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Andrew Copp C | 15:01 | 1 | −0.43 | −0.13 | −0.37 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Jake Walman D | 20:23 | −0.46 | −0.38 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ville Husso G | 60:37 | −1.80 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.