FLA beat DAL 5–4. Expected goals were close to even (DAL 3.3, FLA 3.6), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Aleksander Barkov scored at 4:52 of the third, moving FLA’s win probability from 52% to 79%. Jake Oettinger allowed 1.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DAL–FLA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:39 |  FLA | Evan Rodrigues from Niko Mikkola, Sam Reinhart | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 13:42 |  DAL | Radek Faksa from Sam Steel, Thomas Harley | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P1 18:14 | FLA | Sam Reinhart from Aleksander Barkov, Evan Rodrigues | 1–2 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 0:24 | FLA | Carter Verhaeghe from Sam Bennett, Niko Mikkola | 1–3 | 72% → 86% |
| P3 0:39 | DAL | Mason MarchmentPP from Matt Duchene, Miro Heiskanen | 2–3 | 8% → 23% |
| P3 4:15 | DAL | Evgenii Dadonov from Jani Hakanpää, Wyatt Johnston | 3–3 | 21% → 48% |
| P3 4:52 | FLA | Aleksander Barkov from Sam Reinhart, Evan Rodrigues | 3–4 | 52% → 79% |
| P3 8:00 | FLA | Evan RodriguesPP from Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Aaron Ekblad | 3–5 | 82% → 95% |
| P3 12:26 | DAL | Thomas HarleyPP from Mason Marchment, Matt Duchene | 4–5 | 3% → 15% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Radek Faksa C | 11:53 | 1 | +0.44 | +0.03 | +0.45 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Thomas Harley D | 18:47 | 1 | 1 | +0.40 | −0.12 | +0.44 | +0.10 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Evgenii Dadonov L | 13:32 | 1 | +0.37 | −0.00 | +0.38 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mason Marchment L | 14:49 | 1 | 1 | +0.35 | −0.13 | +0.28 | +0.19 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Sam Steel C | 13:04 | 1 | +0.25 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Craig Smith C | 12:01 | +0.10 | +0.17 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Hanley D | 13:10 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Wyatt Johnston C | 16:55 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.15 | +0.16 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jani Hakanpää D | 17:06 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Duchene C | 20:37 | 2 | −0.02 | −0.30 | −0.18 | +0.27 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Jason Robertson L | 18:01 | −0.05 | −0.07 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Suter D | 19:13 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.10 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Roope Hintz C | 16:42 | −0.12 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.14 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Esa Lindell D | 16:22 | −0.14 | −0.14 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Miro Heiskanen D | 28:02 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.16 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Seguin C | 13:17 | −0.27 | −0.14 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Benn L | 16:36 | −0.31 | +0.02 | −0.20 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Joe Pavelski C | 17:45 | −0.40 | −0.13 | −0.24 | −0.09 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Oettinger G | 58:13 | −1.23 |
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Rodrigues C | 16:52 | 2 | 2 | +1.25 | +0.28 | +0.84 | +0.14 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Aleksander Barkov C | 18:42 | 1 | 1 | +0.86 | +0.37 | +0.35 | +0.14 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Sam Reinhart C | 18:38 | 1 | 2 | +0.84 | +0.38 | +0.25 | +0.18 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 15:04 | 1 | +0.42 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.23 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Niko Mikkola D | 20:28 | 2 | +0.24 | +0.07 | −0.07 | +0.24 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Carter Verhaeghe C | 13:37 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.12 | +0.06 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Aaron Ekblad D | 23:32 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.11 | −0.13 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Gustav Forsling D | 23:38 | −0.06 | +0.16 | −0.14 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Cousins C | 12:32 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Bennett C | 14:16 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.22 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.03 | |
| Dmitry Kulikov D | 15:06 | −0.09 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anton Lundell C | 16:54 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ryan Lomberg L | 9:39 | −0.17 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Brandon Montour D | 21:54 | −0.18 | +0.11 | −0.08 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Tkachuk L | 14:24 | −0.26 | +0.20 | −0.37 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Stenlund C | 11:47 | −0.29 | −0.24 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jonah Gadjovich L | 9:12 | −0.37 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Eetu Luostarinen C | 16:12 | −0.45 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky G | 60:00 | −0.67 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.