NJD beat VAN 6–5. NJD lost the expected-goals battle 2.9 to 3.5 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Jesper Bratt scored at 19:26 of the third, moving NJD’s win probability from 49% to 95%. Thatcher Demko allowed 2.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NJD–VAN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:40 | NJD | Jesper Bratt from Jonas Siegenthaler | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 8:24 |  VAN | J.T. MillerPP from Brock Boeser, Elias Pettersson | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P1 9:51 | NJD | Erik Haula from Jack Hughes | 2–1 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 17:06 | NJD | Jack Hughes from Kevin Bahl | 3–1 | 65% → 79% |
| P1 18:42 | NJD | Michael McLeod from Nathan Bastian, Curtis Lazar | 4–1 | 80% → 92% |
| P1 19:40 | VAN | Dakota Joshua from Conor Garland, Teddy Blueger | 4–2 | 7% → 20% |
| P2 19:26 | NJD | Luke HughesPP from Jack Hughes | 5–2 | 90% → 97% |
| P3 7:02 | VAN | Brock Boeser from J.T. Miller | 5–3 | 1% → 6% |
| P3 13:58 | VAN | Sam Lafferty from Quinn Hughes, Elias Pettersson | 5–4 | 2% → 15% |
| P3 16:34 | VAN | Nils Hoglander from J.T. Miller, Quinn Hughes | 5–5 | 10% → 51% |
| P3 19:26 | NJD | Jesper Bratt from Nico Hischier, Kevin Bahl | 6–5 | 49% → 95% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesper Bratt L | 19:13 | 2 | +1.35 | +0.16 | +1.19 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Luke Hughes D | 16:11 | 1 | +0.91 | −0.06 | +0.81 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Michael McLeod C | 9:03 | 1 | +0.73 | −0.01 | +0.75 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Haula L | 15:21 | 1 | +0.34 | −0.02 | +0.70 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.37 | +0.05 | |
| Jack Hughes C | 18:32 | 1 | 2 | +0.32 | +0.10 | +0.21 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Ondrej Palat L | 17:41 | +0.16 | +0.11 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Bahl D | 19:12 | 2 | +0.12 | +0.11 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nico Hischier C | 19:36 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.24 | −0.19 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Simon Nemec D | 21:45 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Curtis Lazar C | 10:07 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Jonas Siegenthaler D | 26:55 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nathan Bastian R | 9:09 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Timo Meier R | 13:50 | −0.19 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Holtz R | 13:01 | −0.26 | −0.17 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colin Miller D | 12:02 | −0.29 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Toffoli C | 15:41 | −0.49 | +0.11 | −0.60 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| John Marino D | 21:49 | −0.49 | +0.03 | −0.34 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dawson Mercer C | 14:47 | −0.57 | −0.27 | −0.27 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Vitek Vanecek G | 59:37 | −0.88 |
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock Boeser R | 20:29 | 1 | 1 | +0.69 | +0.22 | +0.47 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| J.T. Miller C | 21:08 | 1 | 2 | +0.58 | +0.18 | +0.21 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.19 | −0.01 |
| Dakota Joshua C | 15:14 | 1 | +0.56 | −0.19 | +0.75 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nils Hoglander L | 14:54 | 1 | +0.52 | +0.20 | +0.32 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Lafferty C | 16:14 | 1 | +0.25 | −0.26 | +0.52 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Nikita Zadorov D | 17:08 | +0.18 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Linus Karlsson C | 9:53 | +0.06 | +0.05 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Quinn Hughes D | 26:41 | 2 | +0.03 | +0.17 | −0.15 | +0.05 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nils Aman C | 8:28 | −0.00 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Noah Juulsen D | 10:48 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Filip Hronek D | 23:04 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Myers D | 18:23 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ilya Mikheyev R | 13:55 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian Cole D | 17:32 | −0.13 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Teddy Blueger C | 13:32 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Conor Garland R | 14:58 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.10 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andrei Kuzmenko L | 14:14 | −0.27 | +0.01 | −0.27 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Elias Pettersson C | 22:37 | 2 | −0.42 | +0.03 | −0.48 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Thatcher Demko G | 59:26 | −2.29 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.