SJS beat NYI 5–4 in overtime. SJS lost the expected-goals battle 3.1 to 4.0 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: William Eklund scored at 4:55 of overtime, moving SJS’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Ilya Sorokin allowed 1.6 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SJS–NYI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 9:28 |  NYI | Julien Gauthier from Simon Holmstrom, Bo Horvat | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 12:19 | SJS | Tomas Hertl from Anthony Duclair | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P2 5:27 | NYI | Brock NelsonPP from Noah Dobson, Bo Horvat | 1–2 | 54% → 73% |
| P3 5:17 | NYI | Mike ReillySH from Simon Holmstrom | 1–3 | 79% → 94% |
| P3 8:27 | NYI | Ryan PulockPP from Mike Reilly, Jean-Gabriel Pageau | 1–4 | 96% → 100% |
| P3 11:55 | SJS | Kevin Labanc from Nikita Okhotiuk | 2–4 | 0% → 3% |
| P3 16:49 | SJS | Tomas HertlPP from Mikael Granlund, William Eklund | 3–4 | 1% → 9% |
| P3 18:30 | SJS | Tomas HertlPP from William Eklund, Alexander Barabanov | 4–4 | 6% → 50% |
| OT 4:55 | SJS | William Eklund from Mikael Granlund | 5–4 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tomas Hertl C | 22:59 | 3 | +1.41 | −0.05 | +1.76 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.19 | +0.03 | |
| Kevin Labanc R | 12:42 | 1 | +0.29 | −0.06 | +0.42 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anthony Duclair L | 17:57 | 1 | +0.28 | +0.20 | −0.14 | +0.22 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nikita Okhotiuk D | 18:12 | 1 | +0.05 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.21 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikael Granlund C | 24:51 | 2 | +0.05 | +0.04 | −0.18 | +0.17 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| William Eklund L | 21:08 | 1 | 2 | +0.04 | −0.04 | +0.18 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Mario Ferraro D | 26:10 | +0.03 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Filip Zadina R | 10:12 | −0.03 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.04 | ||
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 22:40 | −0.09 | +0.03 | −0.14 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jan Rutta D | 20:09 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 14:33 | −0.11 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nico Sturm C | 13:03 | −0.11 | −0.06 | −0.08 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Hoffman C | 9:55 | −0.12 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Bailey R | 11:31 | −0.13 | −0.10 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob MacDonald D | 11:49 | −0.20 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Alexander Barabanov L | 18:35 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.02 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Calen Addison D | 17:39 | −0.27 | −0.06 | −0.13 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Burroughs D | 16:48 | −0.41 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.08 | −0.02 | −0.37 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Kaapo Kahkonen G | 63:32 | +0.11 |
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Reilly D | 12:22 | 1 | 1 | +1.09 | +0.09 | +0.77 | +0.22 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Brock Nelson C | 19:53 | 1 | +0.51 | +0.04 | +0.19 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.37 | +0.03 | |
| Ryan Pulock D | 23:24 | 1 | +0.50 | +0.16 | +0.42 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Julien Gauthier R | 9:58 | 1 | +0.42 | +0.02 | +0.42 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Noah Dobson D | 25:30 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.28 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Simon Holmstrom R | 14:19 | 2 | +0.11 | −0.07 | −0.03 | +0.22 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Kyle Palmieri C | 16:53 | +0.10 | +0.16 | −0.00 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 15:22 | 1 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.09 | +0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Samuel Bolduc D | 17:56 | −0.05 | +0.04 | −0.06 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Hudson Fasching R | 12:47 | −0.10 | +0.06 | −0.14 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cal Clutterbuck R | 14:04 | −0.12 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bo Horvat C | 21:06 | 2 | −0.13 | +0.21 | −0.19 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Scott Mayfield D | 18:00 | −0.13 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathew Barzal C | 19:53 | −0.15 | +0.19 | −0.20 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre Engvall L | 15:33 | −0.19 | +0.21 | −0.38 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Romanov D | 24:41 | −0.25 | −0.02 | −0.05 | −0.18 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Cizikas C | 14:11 | −0.32 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Anders Lee C | 15:13 | −0.34 | −0.08 | −0.19 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Sorokin G | 64:35 | −1.62 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.