WPG beat CAR 2–1. WPG lost the expected-goals battle 2.1 to 4.3 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Kyle Connor scored at 16:58 of the first, moving WPG’s win probability from 53% to 71%. Laurent Brossoit saved 4.8 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CAR–WPG | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 16:58 | WPG | Kyle Connor from Nikolaj Ehlers, Mark Scheifele | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 11:39 | WPG | Nikolaj Ehlers from Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor | 0–2 | 74% → 89% |
| P2 19:09 | CAR | Martin Necas from Stefan Noesen, Jalen Chatfield | 1–2 | 8% → 23% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 20:23 | +0.42 | +0.54 | −0.20 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitry Orlov D | 15:31 | +0.25 | +0.10 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brent Burns D | 21:16 | +0.25 | +0.37 | −0.11 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Necas C | 14:49 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.04 | +0.34 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Stefan Noesen R | 12:27 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.03 | −0.07 | +0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jaccob Slavin D | 19:41 | +0.08 | +0.11 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 11:43 | +0.06 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Jalen Chatfield D | 16:40 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brady Skjei D | 21:01 | −0.00 | +0.15 | −0.02 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Staal C | 14:42 | −0.00 | +0.07 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.12 | ||
| Teuvo Teravainen C | 17:30 | −0.04 | +0.42 | −0.34 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jack Drury C | 10:12 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Brett Pesce D | 20:11 | −0.07 | +0.03 | −0.03 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesper Fast R | 11:44 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Bunting L | 16:39 | −0.17 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 16:45 | −0.20 | +0.20 | −0.18 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Sebastian Aho C | 19:44 | −0.23 | +0.23 | −0.41 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Seth Jarvis R | 19:08 | −0.23 | +0.28 | −0.43 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Antti Raanta G | 57:54 | +0.04 |
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 17:03 | 1 | 1 | +0.32 | −0.11 | +0.29 | +0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Gabriel Vilardi C | 15:12 | +0.08 | +0.09 | −0.13 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.04 | ||
| Kyle Connor L | 20:19 | 1 | 1 | +0.06 | −0.03 | +0.12 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Josh Morrissey D | 23:11 | +0.04 | +0.18 | +0.00 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Declan Chisholm D | 10:08 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Perfetti C | 14:44 | −0.10 | +0.05 | −0.03 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Dylan Samberg D | 12:57 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan DeMelo D | 18:45 | −0.13 | +0.07 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nino Niederreiter R | 15:41 | −0.15 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Lowry C | 17:20 | −0.18 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| David Gustafsson C | 8:19 | −0.21 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Alex Iafallo L | 15:40 | −0.22 | −0.06 | −0.12 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Logan Stanley D | 12:58 | −0.26 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Scheifele C | 22:55 | 2 | −0.27 | −0.27 | −0.18 | +0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Morgan Barron C | 9:25 | −0.28 | −0.15 | −0.12 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brenden Dillon D | 20:03 | −0.40 | −0.44 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason Appleton C | 18:56 | −0.44 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Neal Pionk D | 20:24 | −0.51 | −0.50 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Laurent Brossoit G | 60:00 | +4.80 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.