ANA beat COL 4–3 in a shootout. Expected goals were close to even (COL 4.0, ANA 4.1), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Alex Killorn scored on the power play at 10:22 of the second, moving ANA’s win probability from 32% to 53%. John Gibson saved 1.9 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | COL–ANA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:36 | COL | Bowen Byram from Miles Wood, Ross Colton | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 8:59 | COL | Bowen Byram from Fredrik Olofsson, Josh Manson | 2–0 | 63% → 77% |
| P1 14:05 | ANA | Adam HenriquePP from Ryan Strome, Frank Vatrano | 2–1 | 22% → 36% |
| P1 19:17 | COL | Devon Toews from Mikko Rantanen, Nathan MacKinnon | 3–1 | 65% → 80% |
| P2 2:58 | ANA | Leo Carlsson from Alex Killorn | 3–2 | 19% → 34% |
| P2 10:22 | ANA | Alex KillornPP from Leo Carlsson, Pavel Mintyukov | 3–3 | 32% → 53% |
Every player
Show both lineups
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowen Byram D | 25:15 | 2 | +1.63 | +0.25 | +1.42 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Devon Toews D | 27:18 | 1 | +0.49 | −0.45 | +0.70 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Cale Makar D | 25:03 | +0.38 | +0.26 | −0.14 | +0.05 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Tomas Tatar L | 8:10 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan O'Connor R | 12:43 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Cogliano C | 10:38 | −0.10 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Fredrik Olofsson L | 8:53 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Johnson D | 14:14 | −0.20 | −0.09 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Joel Kiviranta L | 11:58 | −0.22 | −0.12 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Caleb Jones D | 8:05 | −0.25 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Josh Manson D | 19:39 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Ryan Johansen C | 12:09 | −0.31 | −0.17 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | +0.00 | ||
| Miles Wood L | 13:07 | 1 | −0.36 | +0.03 | −0.37 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | |
| Ross Colton C | 12:49 | 1 | −0.52 | +0.11 | −0.45 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.02 | +0.00 | |
| Jonathan Drouin L | 14:29 | −0.54 | −0.23 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.30 | ||
| Mikko Rantanen R | 28:20 | 1 | −0.58 | −0.04 | −0.29 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.31 | |
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 29:35 | 1 | −0.72 | +0.25 | −0.69 | +0.15 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.07 | −0.35 | |
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 27:28 | −0.79 | +0.01 | −0.80 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ivan Prosvetov G | 65:00 | +0.63 |
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leo Carlsson C | 19:28 | 1 | 1 | +1.85 | +0.20 | +0.44 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.37 | +0.02 | +0.84 |
| Adam Henrique C | 19:28 | 1 | +0.71 | +0.27 | +0.37 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Killorn L | 20:17 | 1 | 1 | +0.37 | −0.01 | +0.69 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.30 |
| Pavel Mintyukov D | 18:26 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.91 | −0.67 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Ilya Lyubushkin D | 18:45 | +0.15 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Mason McTavish C | 2:33 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | ||
| Urho Vaakanainen D | 16:33 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Ryan Strome C | 15:45 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | |
| Troy Terry R | 20:03 | −0.11 | +0.36 | −0.48 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jackson LaCombe D | 20:11 | −0.20 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Radko Gudas D | 17:37 | −0.25 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Sam Carrick C | 16:54 | −0.28 | −0.10 | −0.14 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Jones L | 12:14 | −0.28 | +0.05 | −0.31 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock McGinn L | 11:59 | −0.31 | +0.05 | −0.33 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Frank Vatrano R | 20:22 | 1 | −0.33 | −0.07 | −0.23 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brett Leason R | 15:39 | −0.38 | −0.14 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Bo Groulx C | 14:26 | −0.40 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.37 | +0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam Fowler D | 28:39 | −0.59 | −0.49 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| John Gibson G | 64:41 | +1.87 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.