PHI beat PIT 4–3 in a shootout. PHI lost the expected-goals battle 2.7 to 3.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Jake Guentzel scored on the power play at 19:39 of the third, moving PIT’s win probability from 4% to 51%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PHI–PIT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 14:31 | PIT | Kris Letang unassisted | 0–1 | 53% → 75% |
| P2 16:47 | PHI | Owen Tippett from Tyson Foerster | 1–1 | 24% → 47% |
| P3 1:50 | PIT | Jake Guentzel from Erik Karlsson, Bryan Rust | 1–2 | 52% → 78% |
| P3 7:01 | PHI | Scott LaughtonSH from Nick Seeler | 2–2 | 18% → 47% |
| P3 13:52 | PHI | Tyson FoersterPP from Cam York, Sean Couturier | 3–2 | 50% → 85% |
| P3 19:39 | PIT | Jake GuentzelPP from Bryan Rust, Evgeni Malkin | 3–3 | 4% → 51% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyson Foerster R | 18:29 | 1 | 1 | +0.46 | +0.14 | +0.60 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.30 |
| Owen Tippett R | 15:17 | 1 | +0.40 | +0.04 | +0.36 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Scott Laughton C | 19:10 | 1 | +0.39 | −0.31 | +0.74 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Couturier C | 20:54 | 1 | +0.24 | +0.01 | −0.57 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.84 | |
| Travis Konecny R | 18:10 | +0.13 | +0.07 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.37 | +0.00 | −0.13 | ||
| Rasmus Ristolainen D | 14:38 | +0.04 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Bobby Brink R | 14:48 | +0.03 | +0.14 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Seeler D | 20:48 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Ryan Poehling C | 13:19 | −0.05 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.07 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc Staal D | 11:23 | −0.12 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Morgan Frost C | 15:27 | −0.15 | +0.16 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam York D | 25:31 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.07 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Nicolas Deslauriers L | 6:30 | −0.17 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Garnet Hathaway R | 11:28 | −0.19 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Farabee L | 15:06 | −0.24 | −0.13 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Walker D | 21:33 | −0.34 | −0.01 | −0.30 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Travis Sanheim D | 26:42 | −0.54 | −0.47 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Cam Atkinson R | 17:47 | −0.60 | −0.39 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Samuel Ersson G | 65:00 | +0.52 |
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Guentzel C | 25:46 | 2 | +1.83 | +0.78 | +1.36 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.30 | |
| Kris Letang D | 27:24 | 1 | +0.99 | +0.28 | +0.71 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Sidney Crosby C | 25:29 | +0.50 | +0.72 | −0.12 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.18 | −0.35 | ||
| Ryan Graves D | 15:45 | +0.17 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Erik Karlsson D | 27:20 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.48 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Evgeni Malkin C | 23:20 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.24 | −0.19 | +0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | |
| Marcus Pettersson D | 20:02 | −0.00 | −0.18 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jansen Harkins C | 9:24 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joona Koppanen L | 7:14 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | ||
| Vinnie Hinostroza C | 5:16 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | ||
| Lars Eller C | 16:45 | −0.07 | −0.24 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Shea D | 11:56 | −0.07 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Radim Zohorna L | 4:52 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Carter C | 13:07 | −0.21 | −0.17 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | ||
| John Ludvig D | 15:49 | −0.24 | −0.19 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Reilly Smith R | 18:14 | −0.38 | −0.22 | −0.17 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drew O'Connor L | 18:12 | −0.49 | −0.25 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Bryan Rust R | 23:49 | 2 | −1.11 | +0.29 | −0.75 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.44 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Tristan Jarry G | 63:34 | −0.25 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.