DET beat MTL 5–4 in overtime. DET also won the expected-goals battle 3.6 to 2.2: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Jake Walman scored at 0:54 of overtime, moving DET’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Ville Husso allowed 1.8 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DET–MTL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:21 |  DET | Joe VelenoPP from Lucas Raymond, Jake Walman | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 11:44 | DET | Christian FischerSH from Michael Rasmussen | 2–0 | 63% → 77% |
| P1 19:20 | DET | Daniel Sprong from Moritz Seider | 3–0 | 80% → 92% |
| P1 19:53 | MTL | Justin Barron from Nick Suzuki | 3–1 | 7% → 20% |
| P2 4:07 | MTL | Joel ArmiaSH unassisted | 3–2 | 18% → 33% |
| P2 4:54 | DET | Alex DeBrincatPP from Moritz Seider, Daniel Sprong | 4–2 | 68% → 82% |
| P3 4:12 | MTL | Nick SuzukiPP from Mike Matheson | 4–3 | 9% → 25% |
| P3 16:01 | MTL | Gustav Lindstrom from Josh Anderson, Jake Evans | 4–4 | 11% → 51% |
| OT 0:54 | DET | Jake Walman from Dylan Larkin, Alex DeBrincat | 5–4 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Walman D | 20:22 | 1 | 1 | +1.26 | +0.34 | +0.75 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Daniel Sprong R | 11:03 | 1 | 1 | +0.63 | −0.02 | +0.65 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Christian Fischer R | 9:50 | 1 | +0.56 | +0.06 | +0.74 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.06 | |
| Alex DeBrincat R | 16:45 | 1 | 1 | +0.55 | +0.19 | +0.52 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Joe Veleno C | 16:56 | 1 | +0.49 | +0.02 | +0.50 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Moritz Seider D | 23:01 | 2 | +0.27 | +0.30 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| J.T. Compher L | 20:54 | +0.11 | +0.10 | −0.16 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Jeff Petry D | 20:53 | +0.08 | +0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Perron L | 13:23 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Copp C | 14:06 | −0.07 | +0.05 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 17:19 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Holl D | 13:14 | −0.14 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Chiarot D | 20:20 | −0.17 | +0.07 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Klim Kostin C | 7:30 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Rasmussen C | 14:20 | 1 | −0.27 | +0.07 | −0.36 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Robby Fabbri C | 12:52 | −0.31 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Lucas Raymond L | 19:35 | 1 | −0.41 | +0.07 | −0.86 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.37 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Larkin C | 21:41 | 1 | −0.43 | +0.29 | −0.51 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.19 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ville Husso G | 60:52 | −1.82 |
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gustav Lindstrom D | 13:12 | 1 | +0.82 | +0.05 | +0.79 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Armia R | 15:51 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.06 | +0.72 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Barron D | 19:24 | 1 | +0.67 | −0.07 | +0.77 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Suzuki C | 22:17 | 1 | 1 | +0.60 | −0.34 | +0.66 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.09 |
| Jayden Struble D | 9:14 | +0.25 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Evans C | 16:31 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Jesse Ylonen R | 11:50 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Johnathan Kovacevic D | 20:17 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 13:55 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tanner Pearson L | 9:37 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Kaiden Guhle D | 22:49 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mitchell Stephens C | 8:17 | −0.12 | +0.06 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.03 | ||
| Christian Dvorak C | 16:07 | −0.14 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Cole Caufield R | 20:24 | −0.22 | −0.34 | −0.24 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.37 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Matheson D | 29:17 | 1 | −0.31 | −0.26 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brendan Gallagher R | 13:20 | −0.32 | −0.15 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Anderson R | 14:00 | 1 | −0.48 | −0.08 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Sean Monahan C | 19:18 | −0.61 | −0.05 | −0.32 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | −0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Allen G | 60:49 | −1.11 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.