SJS beat NJD 6–3. SJS lost the expected-goals battle 1.6 to 5.1 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Jacob MacDonald scored at 2:51 of the second, moving SJS’s win probability from 47% to 66%. Akira Schmid allowed 3.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SJS–NJD | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:10 | SJS | Jacob MacDonald from Mario Ferraro, Ty Emberson | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 13:21 |  NJD | Dawson MercerPP from Simon Nemec, Alexander Holtz | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P2 2:51 | SJS | Jacob MacDonald from Matt Benning, Justin Bailey | 2–1 | 47% → 66% |
| P2 9:47 | SJS | Anthony Duclair from Mikael Granlund | 3–1 | 68% → 84% |
| P3 2:56 | NJD | Jack Hughes unassisted | 3–2 | 9% → 26% |
| P3 5:07 | SJS | Anthony Duclair from Mikael Granlund | 4–2 | 76% → 92% |
| P3 12:58 | NJD | Ondrej Palat from Jesper Bratt, Simon Nemec | 4–3 | 3% → 16% |
| P3 13:38 | SJS | Mikael Granlund unassisted | 5–3 | 85% → 98% |
| P3 19:42 | SJS | William EklundEN from Ryan Carpenter, Tomas Hertl | 6–3 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Duclair L | 18:18 | 2 | +1.60 | −0.05 | +1.63 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Jacob MacDonald D | 12:06 | 2 | +1.48 | −0.02 | +1.51 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikael Granlund C | 20:32 | 1 | 2 | +0.57 | −0.09 | +0.71 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.09 |
| Nico Sturm C | 14:01 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Justin Bailey R | 6:48 | 1 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Calen Addison D | 17:44 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Hoffman C | 17:27 | −0.05 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Benning D | 18:22 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.08 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Givani Smith R | 4:58 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mario Ferraro D | 26:08 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.09 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ty Emberson D | 23:25 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Carpenter C | 12:10 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.18 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| William Eklund L | 19:34 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.14 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Kyle Burroughs D | 15:53 | −0.30 | −0.27 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Hertl C | 19:09 | 1 | −0.32 | −0.25 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Labanc R | 9:49 | −0.32 | −0.16 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 20:47 | −0.39 | −0.21 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nikita Okhotiuk D | 18:51 | −0.70 | −0.35 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Kaapo Kahkonen G | 60:00 | +2.27 |
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dawson Mercer C | 16:27 | 1 | +0.68 | +0.10 | +0.60 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Hughes C | 27:16 | 1 | +0.40 | +0.17 | +0.24 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Ondrej Palat L | 17:22 | 1 | +0.35 | +0.30 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Alexander Holtz R | 18:24 | 1 | +0.31 | +0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jonas Siegenthaler D | 18:35 | +0.04 | +0.08 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Bahl D | 15:37 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Samuel Laberge L | 2:11 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesper Bratt L | 19:47 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.34 | −0.40 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Luke Hughes D | 22:32 | −0.02 | +0.33 | −0.30 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colin Miller D | 15:22 | −0.02 | +0.16 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nico Hischier C | 19:31 | −0.06 | +0.36 | −0.57 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.12 | ||
| Simon Nemec D | 22:38 | 2 | −0.06 | +0.15 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael McLeod C | 10:09 | −0.06 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Nathan Bastian R | 4:53 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Curtis Lazar C | 10:47 | −0.11 | +0.07 | −0.13 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| John Marino D | 17:23 | −0.19 | +0.03 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Toffoli C | 23:20 | −0.25 | +0.10 | −0.37 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Timo Meier R | 21:30 | −0.45 | +0.03 | −0.47 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Akira Schmid G | 56:16 | −3.30 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.