CGY beat DAL 4–3 in overtime. CGY also won the expected-goals battle 3.1 to 2.4: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Nazem Kadri scored at 1:01 of overtime, moving CGY’s win probability from 52% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DAL–CGY | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:51 |  DAL | Thomas Harley from Joe Pavelski, Jason Robertson | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 8:02 |  CGY | Chris Tanev from Andrew Mangiapane, Dennis Gilbert | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P1 15:30 | CGY | Noah Hanifin from Blake Coleman, Mikael Backlund | 1–2 | 53% → 71% |
| P1 19:00 | DAL | Mason Marchment from Miro Heiskanen, Tyler Seguin | 2–2 | 29% → 47% |
| P3 1:49 | DAL | Mason MarchmentPP unassisted | 3–2 | 48% → 74% |
| P3 17:19 | CGY | MacKenzie Weegar from Jonathan Huberdeau | 3–3 | 9% → 51% |
| OT 1:01 | CGY | Nazem Kadri from Jonathan Huberdeau, Jacob Markstrom | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Marchment L | 15:17 | 2 | +1.25 | +0.07 | +1.16 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Thomas Harley D | 18:29 | 1 | +0.54 | −0.18 | +0.74 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Miro Heiskanen D | 24:33 | 1 | +0.41 | +0.41 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Suter D | 21:29 | +0.21 | +0.21 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Seguin C | 15:26 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.09 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Jani Hakanpää D | 22:03 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Roope Hintz C | 14:55 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.08 | ||
| Craig Smith C | 12:23 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joe Pavelski C | 15:47 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Evgenii Dadonov L | 14:32 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Wyatt Johnston C | 15:43 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Robertson L | 15:48 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jamie Benn L | 13:57 | −0.18 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.03 | ||
| Esa Lindell D | 22:21 | −0.21 | −0.28 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nils Lundkvist D | 11:35 | −0.23 | −0.20 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Radek Faksa C | 14:55 | −0.27 | −0.11 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Matt Duchene C | 16:38 | −0.31 | +0.19 | −0.55 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Sam Steel C | 13:12 | −0.54 | −0.10 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Scott Wedgewood G | 78:20 | −0.86 |
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 23:18 | 1 | +1.12 | +0.22 | +0.92 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Chris Tanev D | 20:56 | 1 | +0.78 | −0.06 | +0.81 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nazem Kadri C | 19:25 | 1 | +0.75 | +0.14 | +0.57 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Noah Hanifin D | 25:24 | 1 | +0.65 | +0.08 | +0.56 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Yegor Sharangovich C | 21:24 | +0.24 | +0.11 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Adam Ruzicka C | 7:57 | −0.02 | +0.06 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jordan Oesterle D | 12:27 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 18:04 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dillon Dube C | 9:03 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| A.J. Greer L | 7:54 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 18:33 | 2 | −0.14 | +0.09 | −0.46 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Martin Pospisil C | 12:10 | −0.20 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dennis Gilbert D | 11:42 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.09 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rasmus Andersson D | 23:19 | −0.25 | −0.23 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Coleman L | 16:07 | 1 | −0.25 | +0.06 | −0.31 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikael Backlund C | 16:36 | 1 | −0.34 | −0.08 | −0.23 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Connor Zary C | 17:10 | −0.38 | −0.05 | −0.32 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Elias Lindholm C | 21:34 | −0.55 | −0.12 | −0.36 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Markstrom G | 61:01 | −0.83 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.