MIN beat NSH 6–1. MIN also won the expected-goals battle 3.3 to 2.4: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Connor Dewar scored at 6:08 of the first, moving MIN’s win probability from 47% to 63%. Juuse Saros allowed 2.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MIN–NSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:08 | MIN | Connor Dewar from Brandon Duhaime, Marco Rossi | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 14:01 | MIN | Jake MiddletonPP from Marcus Foligno, Connor Dewar | 2–0 | 64% → 79% |
| P1 14:32 | MIN | Kirill KaprizovPP from Mats Zuccarello, Jared Spurgeon | 3–0 | 79% → 91% |
| P2 1:43 | MIN | Patrick Maroon from Alex Goligoski, Frederick Gaudreau | 4–0 | 93% → 99% |
| P2 11:12 | MIN | Connor Dewar from Kirill Kaprizov | 5–0 | 99% → 99% |
| P3 2:37 | NSH | Juuso Parssinen from Ryan McDonagh, Luke Evangelista | 5–1 | 0% → 0% |
| P3 9:47 | MIN | Connor Dewar from Vinni Lettieri, Zach Bogosian | 6–1 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor Dewar C | 14:12 | 3 | 1 | +1.08 | +0.06 | +1.05 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Jake Middleton D | 16:47 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.10 | +0.86 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Patrick Maroon L | 12:53 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.01 | +0.38 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.37 | +0.01 | |
| Brandon Duhaime R | 14:19 | 1 | +0.24 | +0.07 | −0.08 | +0.23 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Goligoski D | 17:26 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vinni Lettieri C | 10:14 | 1 | +0.20 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.20 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jared Spurgeon D | 18:28 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.15 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Boldy L | 13:04 | +0.19 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Bogosian D | 15:07 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.16 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 17:35 | 1 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.02 | +0.43 | +0.15 | +0.00 | −0.56 | +0.00 |
| Frederick Gaudreau C | 13:49 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.10 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Brock Faber D | 22:46 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mats Zuccarello C | 16:34 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.22 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marcus Foligno L | 14:15 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jonas Brodin D | 23:10 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.04 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 18:35 | −0.15 | +0.04 | −0.11 | −0.06 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Marcus Johansson L | 16:03 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.15 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Marco Rossi C | 16:45 | 1 | −0.31 | −0.00 | −0.11 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.19 | −0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Filip Gustavsson G | 77:22 | +1.58 |
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandre Carrier D | 1:39 | +0.21 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Juuso Parssinen C | 19:33 | 1 | +0.16 | −0.07 | +0.41 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Ryan McDonagh D | 21:07 | 1 | +0.11 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.17 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Luke Evangelista R | 15:57 | 1 | +0.08 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jeremy Lauzon D | 16:36 | +0.07 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Kiefer Sherwood L | 14:25 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 16:09 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Cole Smith L | 14:58 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.14 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Yakov Trenin C | 15:03 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael McCarron C | 13:42 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Luke Schenn D | 15:04 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gustav Nyquist R | 14:34 | −0.16 | −0.05 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Filip Forsberg L | 19:59 | −0.27 | −0.08 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Tyson Barrie D | 19:40 | −0.29 | −0.10 | −0.14 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Roman Josi D | 23:18 | −0.32 | +0.03 | −0.07 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Sissons C | 19:52 | −0.37 | −0.06 | −0.26 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Dante Fabbro D | 15:58 | −0.43 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.37 | +0.00 | ||
| Philip Tomasino C | 16:38 | −0.48 | −0.08 | −0.17 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Kevin Lankinen G | 38:17 | −0.66 |
| Juuse Saros G | 21:00 | −2.39 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.