TOR beat SEA 4–3 in a shootout. TOR lost the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 5.1 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Jared McCann scored at 13:24 of the third, moving SEA’s win probability from 14% to 49%. Joseph Woll saved 2.0 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SEA–TOR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:34 |  TOR | Mitch MarnerPP from William Nylander, Auston Matthews | 0–1 | 54% → 70% |
| P2 0:21 | TOR | Mitch Marner from Auston Matthews, Conor Timmins | 0–2 | 72% → 86% |
| P2 3:37 | SEA | Jared McCannPP from Oliver Bjorkstrand, Jordan Eberle | 1–2 | 14% → 28% |
| P2 16:01 | TOR | Mitch Marner from Jake McCabe | 1–3 | 76% → 90% |
| P3 6:15 | SEA | Eeli Tolvanen from Tye Kartye, Adam Larsson | 2–3 | 5% → 20% |
| P3 13:24 | SEA | Jared McCann from Alexander Wennberg, Justin Schultz | 3–3 | 14% → 49% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SEA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared McCann L | 19:03 | 2 | +1.74 | +0.43 | +1.46 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.02 | −0.35 | |
| Eeli Tolvanen R | 18:02 | 1 | +0.72 | +0.15 | +0.59 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Will Borgen D | 17:30 | +0.34 | +0.35 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Vince Dunn D | 25:08 | +0.15 | +0.18 | −0.05 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Andrew Poturalski C | 6:03 | +0.13 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matty Beniers C | 19:27 | +0.11 | +0.13 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Schultz D | 16:31 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.23 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Pierre-Edouard Bellemare L | 9:22 | +0.06 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.19 | −0.04 | +0.00 | ||
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 18:17 | +0.05 | +0.38 | −0.31 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Brian Dumoulin D | 14:11 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Yanni Gourde C | 20:53 | −0.02 | +0.40 | −0.41 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Wennberg C | 20:43 | 1 | −0.20 | +0.29 | −0.26 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.02 | +0.00 | |
| Marián Studenic R | 9:53 | −0.21 | +0.03 | −0.23 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tye Kartye L | 12:32 | 1 | −0.25 | +0.14 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 20:25 | 1 | −0.25 | +0.67 | −1.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Larsson D | 25:47 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.07 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Kailer Yamamoto R | 14:14 | −0.29 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.30 | ||
| Jordan Eberle R | 20:33 | 1 | −0.39 | +0.23 | −0.60 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Philipp Grubauer G | 64:44 | −0.88 |
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch Marner R | 24:39 | 3 | +2.25 | −0.38 | +2.26 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.31 | |
| Auston Matthews C | 22:43 | 2 | +0.75 | −0.25 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.04 | +0.84 | |
| Tyler Bertuzzi L | 14:58 | +0.19 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Timmins D | 14:48 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.09 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Simon Benoit D | 14:57 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Nicholas Robertson L | 10:10 | −0.14 | +0.03 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Rielly D | 26:08 | −0.15 | −0.18 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| David Kampf C | 13:18 | −0.23 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Knies L | 14:39 | −0.28 | −0.28 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Lagesson D | 18:02 | −0.33 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 14:00 | −0.37 | +0.09 | −0.26 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Domi C | 13:24 | −0.41 | −0.25 | −0.20 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Gregor L | 9:13 | −0.47 | −0.11 | −0.34 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Tavares C | 16:22 | −0.49 | −0.09 | −0.44 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.05 | +0.00 | ||
| Bobby McMann C | 5:44 | −0.50 | −0.12 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| TJ Brodie D | 23:34 | −0.55 | −0.52 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jake McCabe D | 24:16 | 1 | −0.62 | −0.43 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| William Nylander R | 23:15 | 1 | −1.07 | −0.34 | −0.41 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.30 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joseph Woll G | 64:48 | +2.01 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.