NJD beat PHI 4–3 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (NJD 4.0, PHI 3.9), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Luke Hughes scored at 0:28 of overtime, moving NJD’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Akira Schmid saved 1.1 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NJD–PHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:10 |  NJD | Alexander Holtz from Michael McLeod, Colin Miller | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 15:12 | NJD | Jack Hughes from Tyler Toffoli, Dawson Mercer | 2–0 | 65% → 78% |
| P2 11:49 |  PHI | Morgan FrostPP from Travis Konecny, Cam York | 2–1 | 15% → 31% |
| P3 4:31 | NJD | Tyler ToffoliPP from Nico Hischier, Jack Hughes | 3–1 | 76% → 92% |
| P3 15:00 | PHI | Tyson Foerster from Sean Walker, Sean Couturier | 3–2 | 2% → 13% |
| P3 19:09 | PHI | Tyson FoersterPP from Scott Laughton, Bobby Brink | 3–3 | 5% → 50% |
| OT 0:28 | NJD | Luke Hughes from Jack Hughes, Nico Hischier | 4–3 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Hughes D | 21:45 | 1 | +0.53 | +0.20 | +0.37 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Toffoli C | 20:02 | 1 | 1 | +0.45 | +0.14 | +0.31 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Alexander Holtz R | 15:48 | 1 | +0.36 | +0.03 | +0.34 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| John Marino D | 23:18 | +0.32 | +0.06 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.37 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Hughes C | 23:29 | 1 | 2 | +0.26 | +0.36 | −0.00 | +0.08 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.03 |
| Michael McLeod C | 16:08 | 1 | +0.15 | −0.02 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.37 | +0.00 | |
| Ondrej Palat L | 13:02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Samuel Laberge L | 4:00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colin Miller D | 15:14 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.10 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Chris Tierney C | 7:48 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Brendan Smith D | 16:47 | −0.13 | +0.12 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Curtis Lazar C | 13:54 | −0.15 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Jonas Siegenthaler D | 17:12 | −0.15 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dawson Mercer C | 18:23 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.09 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nico Hischier C | 20:18 | 2 | −0.24 | +0.30 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.37 | +0.03 | |
| Jesper Bratt L | 19:12 | −0.28 | +0.12 | −0.40 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nathan Bastian R | 8:27 | −0.34 | −0.09 | −0.22 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Kevin Bahl D | 15:24 | −0.35 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Akira Schmid G | 60:19 | +1.07 |
PHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyson Foerster R | 20:43 | 2 | +1.87 | +0.10 | +1.57 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Morgan Frost C | 18:29 | 1 | +0.65 | +0.07 | +0.75 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Nicolas Deslauriers L | 8:03 | +0.05 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Seeler D | 16:55 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Farabee L | 0:56 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Egor Zamula D | 13:40 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bobby Brink R | 15:51 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Walker D | 18:13 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Poehling C | 14:55 | −0.16 | +0.02 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Garnet Hathaway R | 3:52 | −0.22 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Konecny R | 22:48 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.12 | −0.26 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Rasmus Ristolainen D | 15:09 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Cam Atkinson R | 17:00 | −0.24 | +0.06 | −0.29 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Owen Tippett R | 18:06 | −0.35 | −0.00 | −0.54 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Scott Laughton C | 19:10 | 1 | −0.41 | −0.06 | −0.30 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Cam York D | 22:46 | 1 | −0.50 | −0.03 | −0.47 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Travis Sanheim D | 24:53 | −0.57 | −0.21 | −0.35 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Couturier C | 19:35 | 1 | −0.76 | +0.03 | −0.59 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Carter Hart G | 59:06 | +0.30 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.