NYI beat CAR 5–4 in overtime. NYI lost the expected-goals battle 1.9 to 4.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Mathew Barzal scored at 2:46 of overtime, moving NYI’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Pyotr Kochetkov allowed 3.1 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYI–CAR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 8:08 |  CAR | Jalen Chatfield from Michael Bunting, Dmitry Orlov | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 18:00 | NYI | Bo Horvat from Mathew Barzal, Anders Lee | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 2:01 | CAR | Jordan Staal from Jordan Martinook, Jaccob Slavin | 1–2 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 15:59 | NYI | Simon HolmstromSH from Jean-Gabriel Pageau | 2–2 | 24% → 47% |
| P2 18:03 | NYI | Pierre Engvall from Mathew Barzal, Noah Dobson | 3–2 | 47% → 72% |
| P3 0:39 | CAR | Jack Drury from Stefan Noesen, Martin Necas | 3–3 | 27% → 52% |
| P3 6:41 | NYI | Kyle PalmieriPP from Noah Dobson, Mathew Barzal | 4–3 | 49% → 78% |
| P3 19:57 | CAR | Sebastian AhoPP from Jordan Staal, Brent Burns | 4–4 | 4% → 52% |
| OT 2:46 | NYI | Mathew Barzal from Noah Dobson | 5–4 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mathew Barzal C | 20:56 | 1 | 3 | +0.99 | +0.14 | +0.36 | +0.49 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Simon Holmstrom R | 8:36 | 1 | +0.73 | −0.10 | +0.85 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Noah Dobson D | 27:06 | 3 | +0.44 | +0.02 | −0.05 | +0.46 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Bo Horvat C | 21:15 | 1 | +0.30 | −0.08 | +0.39 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Scott Mayfield D | 19:44 | +0.03 | −0.20 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre Engvall L | 16:43 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.19 | +0.31 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Cal Clutterbuck R | 13:58 | −0.11 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Oliver Wahlstrom R | 8:14 | −0.12 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Kyle Palmieri C | 18:48 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.43 | +0.29 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Samuel Bolduc D | 12:19 | −0.14 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Julien Gauthier R | 10:50 | −0.15 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Pulock D | 22:27 | −0.25 | −0.37 | +0.00 | +0.09 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Nelson C | 18:09 | −0.29 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.02 | ||
| Anders Lee C | 15:27 | 1 | −0.31 | −0.30 | −0.08 | +0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mike Reilly D | 13:05 | −0.34 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Cizikas C | 15:32 | −0.35 | −0.29 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Alexander Romanov D | 24:30 | −0.38 | −0.37 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 14:39 | 1 | −0.38 | −0.23 | −0.15 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Semyon Varlamov G | 62:46 | +0.51 |
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sebastian Aho C | 20:07 | 1 | +0.50 | +0.01 | +0.60 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Jalen Chatfield D | 15:32 | 1 | +0.48 | +0.23 | +0.32 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Drury C | 10:21 | 1 | +0.36 | +0.17 | +0.25 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Dmitry Orlov D | 17:55 | 1 | +0.29 | +0.31 | −0.04 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andrei Svechnikov R | 18:10 | +0.26 | +0.47 | −0.07 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Stefan Noesen R | 12:01 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.18 | −0.12 | +0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brent Burns D | 21:41 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.26 | −0.08 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jesperi Kotkaniemi C | 17:25 | +0.14 | +0.11 | −0.16 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.37 | −0.07 | ||
| Michael Bunting L | 15:20 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.03 | −0.04 | +0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Martinook L | 12:04 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.04 | −0.11 | +0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Seth Jarvis R | 18:04 | +0.07 | +0.18 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Martin Necas C | 16:39 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.34 | −0.21 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Brady Skjei D | 23:11 | +0.06 | +0.35 | −0.25 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Staal C | 14:15 | 1 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.31 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.05 |
| Jesper Fast R | 9:05 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaccob Slavin D | 22:46 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Teuvo Teravainen C | 17:50 | −0.02 | +0.11 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Brett Pesce D | 20:03 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Pyotr Kochetkov G | 61:05 | −3.12 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.