EDM beat VGK 5–4 in a shootout. EDM also won the expected-goals battle 3.7 to 2.7: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Keegan Kolesar scored at 17:52 of the third, moving VGK’s win probability from 7% to 50%. Logan Thompson allowed 1.8 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VGK–EDM | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 13:29 | EDM | Sam Gagner from James Hamblin | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P2 1:11 | VGK | Mark Stone from Kaedan Korczak, Jack Eichel | 1–1 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 5:08 | EDM | Mattias Janmark from Mattias Ekholm, Connor McDavid | 1–2 | 53% → 73% |
| P2 5:51 | VGK | Michael Amadio from Nicolas Roy | 2–2 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 7:54 | EDM | Connor McDavid from Cody Ceci | 2–3 | 53% → 73% |
| P2 17:23 | EDM | Evander KanePP from Evan Bouchard, Connor McDavid | 2–4 | 77% → 91% |
| P3 13:30 | VGK | Ben Hutton from Paul Cotter, Michael Amadio | 3–4 | 2% → 14% |
| P3 17:52 | VGK | Keegan Kolesar from Zach Whitecloud, Nicolas Roy | 4–4 | 7% → 50% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Hutton D | 15:34 | 1 | +0.76 | −0.04 | +0.80 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Michael Amadio R | 13:55 | 1 | 1 | +0.64 | −0.12 | +0.76 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 |
| Keegan Kolesar R | 10:24 | 1 | +0.63 | −0.05 | +0.70 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Whitecloud D | 18:25 | 1 | +0.43 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.37 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Mark Stone R | 19:01 | 1 | +0.23 | −0.22 | +0.45 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | |
| William Carrier L | 11:36 | +0.10 | +0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kaedan Korczak D | 17:19 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Paul Cotter C | 9:42 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ivan Barbashev L | 15:25 | −0.13 | −0.04 | −0.28 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chandler Stephenson C | 19:23 | −0.15 | −0.04 | −0.15 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | ||
| William Karlsson C | 19:16 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.43 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.08 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Hague D | 17:17 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Brayden McNabb D | 20:11 | −0.34 | −0.31 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Brett Howden C | 12:23 | −0.35 | −0.24 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Roy C | 17:59 | 2 | −0.43 | −0.31 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | |
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 19:19 | −0.49 | +0.04 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.30 | ||
| Alex Pietrangelo D | 28:20 | −0.50 | −0.31 | −0.40 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jack Eichel C | 22:00 | 1 | −0.88 | −0.35 | −0.23 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.06 | −0.09 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Logan Thompson G | 65:00 | −1.80 |
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor McDavid C | 22:07 | 1 | 2 | +1.36 | +0.15 | +0.58 | +0.12 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.71 |
| Sam Gagner C | 7:23 | 1 | +0.91 | −0.01 | +0.90 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mattias Janmark C | 15:45 | 1 | +0.76 | +0.01 | +0.75 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 22:53 | +0.55 | +0.13 | −0.00 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.40 | ||
| Mattias Ekholm D | 21:42 | 1 | +0.33 | +0.33 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Evander Kane L | 19:48 | 1 | +0.29 | +0.08 | +0.58 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.37 | +0.01 | +0.00 | |
| Connor Brown R | 16:31 | +0.14 | +0.32 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| James Hamblin L | 6:26 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vincent Desharnais D | 14:46 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Derek Ryan C | 12:08 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Kulak D | 12:40 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Cody Ceci D | 23:07 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Ryan McLeod C | 16:05 | −0.14 | +0.22 | −0.42 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | +0.00 | ||
| Warren Foegele L | 12:34 | −0.18 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evan Bouchard D | 25:33 | 1 | −0.19 | +0.15 | −0.34 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Adam Erne L | 6:10 | −0.21 | −0.02 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Darnell Nurse D | 22:48 | −0.33 | +0.03 | −0.35 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Leon Draisaitl C | 24:34 | −0.38 | +0.05 | −0.44 | +0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Stuart Skinner G | 65:00 | −0.60 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.