TOR beat FLA 2–1 in a shootout. Expected goals were close to even (FLA 3.3, TOR 3.4), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Noah Gregor scored at 12:54 of the second, moving TOR’s win probability from 31% to 53%. Joseph Woll saved 3.4 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | FLA–TOR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 15:29 | FLA | Kevin Stenlund from Jonah Gadjovich, Aaron Ekblad | 1–0 | 47% → 65% |
| P2 12:54 | TOR | Noah Gregor unassisted | 1–1 | 31% → 53% |
Every player
Show both lineups
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Reinhart C | 22:20 | +0.94 | +0.06 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +1.06 | ||
| Kevin Stenlund C | 12:37 | 1 | +0.64 | +0.08 | +0.76 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.02 | +0.00 | |
| Gustav Forsling D | 23:24 | +0.20 | +0.24 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 14:15 | +0.11 | +0.16 | −0.07 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Niko Mikkola D | 20:24 | −0.04 | +0.07 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Sam Bennett C | 16:33 | −0.06 | +0.20 | −0.43 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eetu Luostarinen C | 16:12 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Montour D | 24:14 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Ryan Lomberg L | 7:20 | −0.17 | +0.03 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitry Kulikov D | 16:32 | −0.19 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Aaron Ekblad D | 23:01 | 1 | −0.20 | +0.06 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Carter Verhaeghe C | 16:42 | −0.25 | −0.07 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonah Gadjovich L | 6:42 | 1 | −0.28 | +0.03 | −0.30 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Evan Rodrigues C | 17:49 | −0.48 | +0.20 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.44 | ||
| Nick Cousins C | 11:45 | −0.55 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.44 | ||
| Matthew Tkachuk L | 17:06 | −0.60 | −0.00 | −0.39 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.44 | ||
| Aleksander Barkov C | 22:38 | −0.82 | −0.10 | −0.19 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.02 | −0.35 | ||
| Anton Lundell C | 16:02 | −1.00 | −0.08 | −0.57 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.30 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Stolarz G | 65:00 | +1.85 |
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Gregor L | 11:29 | 1 | +1.70 | +0.01 | +0.66 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +1.06 | |
| Conor Timmins D | 16:55 | +0.21 | +0.19 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jake McCabe D | 21:26 | +0.15 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Ryan Reaves R | 7:16 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Giordano D | 6:31 | −0.10 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 16:34 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Auston Matthews C | 24:15 | −0.12 | −0.21 | −0.77 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.84 | ||
| Morgan Rielly D | 30:30 | −0.15 | −0.11 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Mitch Marner R | 22:12 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.08 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.13 | ||
| David Kampf C | 9:28 | −0.17 | −0.02 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| TJ Brodie D | 24:45 | −0.17 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| John Tavares C | 23:20 | −0.21 | +0.07 | −0.28 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Benoit D | 17:15 | −0.23 | −0.11 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Tyler Bertuzzi L | 19:03 | −0.32 | +0.08 | −0.38 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Knies L | 14:29 | −0.46 | −0.17 | −0.29 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicholas Robertson L | 9:15 | −0.61 | −0.01 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.44 | ||
| William Nylander R | 24:42 | −0.63 | −0.25 | −0.41 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.37 | −0.02 | −0.30 | ||
| Max Domi C | 12:40 | −1.02 | −0.05 | −0.26 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.37 | +0.05 | −0.44 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joseph Woll G | 65:00 | +3.42 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.