NJD beat NYI 5–4. NJD lost the expected-goals battle 3.1 to 3.4 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Curtis Lazar scored at 19:37 of the third, moving NJD’s win probability from 51% to 97%. Ilya Sorokin allowed 2.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYI–NJD | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:16 | NYI | Bo HorvatPP from Noah Dobson, Mathew Barzal | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 10:29 | NJD | Michael McLeod from Curtis Lazar | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P2 4:19 | NJD | Dawson Mercer from Jack Hughes, Tyler Toffoli | 1–2 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 8:24 | NYI | Mathew Barzal from Anders Lee, Noah Dobson | 2–2 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 9:40 | NYI | Cal Clutterbuck from Casey Cizikas, Julien Gauthier | 3–2 | 47% → 68% |
| P2 13:05 | NYI | Jean-Gabriel Pageau from Mathew Barzal, Alexander Romanov | 4–2 | 69% → 86% |
| P3 5:08 | NJD | Jack Hughes from Dawson Mercer, Brendan Smith | 4–3 | 8% → 24% |
| P3 11:10 | NJD | Nico HischierPP from Jack Hughes, Luke Hughes | 4–4 | 20% → 52% |
| P3 19:37 | NJD | Curtis Lazar from Kevin Bahl, Michael McLeod | 4–5 | 51% → 97% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cal Clutterbuck R | 13:39 | 1 | +0.86 | +0.09 | +0.74 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 15:15 | 1 | +0.63 | −0.07 | +0.55 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.03 | |
| Mathew Barzal C | 18:25 | 1 | 2 | +0.48 | +0.04 | +0.43 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Bo Horvat C | 18:55 | 1 | +0.37 | −0.06 | +0.53 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.07 | |
| Scott Mayfield D | 24:37 | +0.16 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Grant Hutton D | 7:21 | +0.11 | +0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Wahlstrom R | 10:09 | +0.07 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Noah Dobson D | 25:38 | 2 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Pulock D | 22:38 | −0.03 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.05 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Pierre Engvall L | 15:08 | −0.12 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Cizikas C | 15:08 | 1 | −0.18 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | |
| Alexander Romanov D | 23:43 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.24 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Anders Lee C | 13:24 | 1 | −0.27 | +0.13 | −0.58 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Mike Reilly D | 10:42 | −0.28 | +0.11 | −0.39 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Simon Holmstrom R | 11:30 | −0.33 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Nelson C | 18:43 | −0.33 | −0.06 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Kyle Palmieri C | 18:05 | −0.36 | −0.06 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Julien Gauthier R | 10:48 | 1 | −0.41 | +0.08 | −0.48 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Sorokin G | 91:01 | −2.17 |
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Hischier C | 21:17 | 1 | +0.90 | +0.27 | +0.57 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Michael McLeod C | 15:07 | 1 | 1 | +0.84 | −0.01 | +0.77 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.08 |
| Curtis Lazar C | 12:39 | 1 | 1 | +0.82 | +0.03 | +0.74 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.05 |
| Jack Hughes C | 20:41 | 1 | 2 | +0.46 | +0.15 | +0.16 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.07 |
| Luke Hughes D | 22:53 | 1 | +0.43 | +0.28 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Dawson Mercer C | 19:01 | 1 | 1 | +0.43 | −0.15 | +0.77 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.03 |
| Tyler Toffoli C | 18:26 | 1 | +0.22 | +0.16 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Kevin Bahl D | 13:49 | 1 | +0.17 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jonas Siegenthaler D | 22:29 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan Bastian R | 7:48 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Colin Miller D | 11:31 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Holtz R | 14:30 | −0.09 | +0.06 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dougie Hamilton D | 13:37 | −0.21 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| John Marino D | 23:07 | −0.22 | −0.19 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Tierney C | 7:38 | −0.23 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ondrej Palat L | 15:51 | −0.37 | −0.01 | −0.40 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Smith D | 15:21 | 1 | −0.38 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jesper Bratt L | 17:58 | −0.40 | +0.03 | −0.27 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Akira Schmid G | 26:55 | +0.70 |
| Vitek Vanecek G | 33:05 | −1.14 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.