CGY beat VGK 2–1 in overtime. CGY also won the expected-goals battle 3.5 to 2.7: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: MacKenzie Weegar scored at 4:55 of overtime, moving CGY’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Dan Vladar saved 1.9 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VGK–CGY | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 13:53 |  VGK | William KarlssonPP from Nicolas Roy, Michael Amadio | 1–0 | 48% → 64% |
| P3 2:31 |  CGY | A.J. Greer from Nazem Kadri, Connor Zary | 1–1 | 26% → 52% |
| OT 4:55 | CGY | MacKenzie Weegar unassisted | 1–2 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Karlsson C | 20:31 | 1 | +0.41 | −0.41 | +0.68 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.06 | |
| Michael Amadio R | 12:50 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.23 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Ben Hutton D | 19:02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Whitecloud D | 20:17 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chandler Stephenson C | 20:27 | −0.11 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 17:28 | −0.12 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Howden C | 11:28 | −0.13 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Kaedan Korczak D | 19:18 | −0.13 | −0.18 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Keegan Kolesar R | 9:09 | −0.14 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Paul Cotter C | 10:32 | −0.15 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Hague D | 18:32 | −0.18 | −0.09 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Pietrangelo D | 24:05 | −0.21 | −0.22 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Stone R | 19:58 | −0.29 | −0.13 | −0.22 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Carrier L | 10:31 | −0.39 | +0.16 | −0.34 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Brayden McNabb D | 24:32 | −0.45 | −0.35 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Barbashev L | 16:49 | −0.46 | −0.03 | −0.39 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Nicolas Roy C | 16:31 | 1 | −0.57 | +0.14 | −0.54 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.03 | |
| Jack Eichel C | 22:00 | −0.69 | −0.44 | −0.27 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Adin Hill G | 64:35 | +1.32 |
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MacKenzie Weegar D | 22:53 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.19 | +0.85 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| A.J. Greer L | 10:34 | 1 | +0.82 | +0.09 | +0.73 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Noah Hanifin D | 26:58 | +0.28 | +0.28 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nazem Kadri C | 21:32 | 1 | +0.24 | +0.33 | −0.50 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.37 | +0.02 | |
| Elias Lindholm C | 22:41 | +0.10 | +0.24 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Zadorov D | 20:40 | +0.08 | +0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Andersson D | 23:22 | +0.07 | +0.17 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dillon Dube C | 13:04 | +0.03 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Tanev D | 15:18 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Pospisil C | 10:27 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Dennis Gilbert D | 14:24 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Ruzicka C | 6:54 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Mikael Backlund C | 20:55 | −0.07 | +0.03 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Yegor Sharangovich C | 21:56 | −0.07 | +0.47 | −0.52 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 18:21 | −0.33 | +0.17 | −0.52 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Zary C | 11:54 | 1 | −0.34 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Andrew Mangiapane L | 17:04 | −0.40 | +0.08 | −0.28 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Coleman L | 16:37 | −0.63 | +0.01 | −0.64 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Dan Vladar G | 64:31 | +1.86 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.