EDM beat ANA 8–2. EDM also won the expected-goals battle 2.9 to 1.8: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins scored at 12:37 of the first, moving EDM’s win probability from 53% to 70%. Lukas Dostal allowed 4.1 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ANA–EDM | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:32 |  ANA | Max Jones from Brett Leason, Urho Vaakanainen | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 4:36 |  EDM | Evander Kane from Connor Brown, Leon Draisaitl | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P1 6:10 | ANA | Max Jones from Jakob Silfverberg, Pavel Mintyukov | 2–1 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 9:29 | EDM | Connor McDavid from Zach Hyman, Darnell Nurse | 2–2 | 37% → 53% |
| P1 12:37 | EDM | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins from Darnell Nurse, Connor McDavid | 2–3 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 17:50 | EDM | Zach Hyman from Connor McDavid, Vincent Desharnais | 2–4 | 71% → 85% |
| P2 5:01 | EDM | James Hamblin from Adam Erne, Vincent Desharnais | 2–5 | 87% → 95% |
| P2 7:20 | EDM | Zach Hyman from Connor McDavid | 2–6 | 95% → 99% |
| P3 7:11 | EDM | Leon DraisaitlPP from Connor McDavid, Evan Bouchard | 2–7 | 100% → 100% |
| P3 15:50 | EDM | Mattias EkholmPP from Darnell Nurse, Evander Kane | 2–8 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Jones L | 13:03 | 2 | +1.45 | +0.03 | +1.44 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Urho Vaakanainen D | 20:16 | 1 | +0.25 | +0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Radko Gudas D | 13:02 | +0.09 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Leason R | 11:55 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Pavel Mintyukov D | 18:20 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Carrick C | 12:36 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Bo Groulx C | 15:04 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Jakob Silfverberg R | 12:19 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Troy Terry R | 12:41 | −0.11 | +0.02 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Adam Henrique C | 16:33 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jackson LaCombe D | 21:29 | −0.17 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mason McTavish C | 17:46 | −0.18 | −0.06 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ilya Lyubushkin D | 19:57 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock McGinn L | 10:29 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Frank Vatrano R | 17:18 | −0.28 | −0.06 | −0.20 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Killorn L | 17:02 | −0.30 | −0.00 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Strome C | 16:56 | −0.40 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.37 | +0.01 | ||
| Cam Fowler D | 24:06 | −0.41 | −0.11 | −0.29 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| John Gibson G | 32:40 | −0.76 |
| Lukas Dostal G | 27:20 | −4.12 |
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Hyman L | 19:10 | 2 | 1 | +1.34 | −0.02 | +1.37 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Leon Draisaitl C | 17:24 | 1 | 1 | +0.98 | +0.01 | +0.78 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Mattias Ekholm D | 21:20 | 1 | +0.86 | +0.08 | +0.75 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 18:27 | 1 | +0.82 | +0.07 | +0.74 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| James Hamblin L | 9:45 | 1 | +0.76 | +0.00 | +0.77 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Connor McDavid C | 19:03 | 1 | 4 | +0.51 | +0.02 | +0.29 | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.19 | −0.01 |
| Evander Kane L | 18:47 | 1 | 1 | +0.45 | +0.00 | +0.67 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | −0.02 |
| Evan Bouchard D | 23:36 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Warren Foegele L | 13:35 | +0.11 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Erne L | 11:02 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brett Kulak D | 16:58 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Ceci D | 15:01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vincent Desharnais D | 14:13 | 2 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Connor Brown R | 14:53 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Derek Ryan C | 9:53 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Mattias Janmark C | 12:04 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Ryan McLeod C | 15:00 | −0.19 | −0.04 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Darnell Nurse D | 25:10 | 3 | −0.26 | +0.04 | −0.30 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Stuart Skinner G | 58:39 | −0.10 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.