Tonight: 3 gamesModel estimates, not official NHL statistics
puckmodel
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2023-11-25 · UBS Arena

1 – 0Final/SO

PHI beat NYI 1–0 in a shootout. PHI also won the expected-goals battle 3.6 to 2.6: the better chances went the right way. Samuel Ersson saved 4.0 goals above expected.

Shots on goal
40 – 25
Expected goals
3.6 – 2.6
xG share
PHI 57%
Home-ice start
NYI 53%

Win probability

The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.

PHI goalNYI goal

Expected goals

Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.

PHINYI

Three stars, by the model

Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.

PHI
65:00 TOI
GSAx +3.98
+3.98
NYI
64:06 TOI
GSAx +3.56
+3.56
PHI
0 G, 0 A · 18:09 TOI
On-ice +0.12 · Finishing −0.69 · Penalties +0.19 · Shootout +1.06
+0.69

Rough nights

NYI
0 G, 0 A · 21:45 TOI
On-ice −0.52 · Finishing −0.51
−1.00
NYI
0 G, 0 A · 20:38 TOI
On-ice +0.22 · Finishing −0.69 · Shootout −0.30
−0.80
NYI
Mathew Barzal
0 G, 0 A · 20:37 TOI
Finishing −0.31 · Shootout −0.44
−0.74

Scoring

Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.

TimeTeamGoalPHI–NYIWin prob.

Every player

Show both lineups

PHI

SkaterTOIGANet goalsOn-iceFinishingPlaymakingSuppressionPenaltiesFaceoffsShootout
Tyson Foerster R18:09+0.69+0.12−0.69−0.00+0.01+0.19+0.00+1.06
Marc Staal D17:43+0.16+0.15+0.01+0.01−0.00+0.00+0.00−0.00
Nick Seeler D20:29+0.07+0.06+0.00−0.01+0.02+0.00+0.00−0.00
Sean Walker D21:46+0.05+0.34−0.06−0.01−0.03−0.19+0.00−0.00
Garnet Hathaway R9:56−0.03−0.02−0.00−0.01+0.02+0.00−0.01+0.00
Travis Konecny R18:40−0.09+0.33−0.43+0.02−0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00
Nicolas Deslauriers L8:29−0.09−0.06−0.02−0.02+0.00+0.00+0.00+0.00
Owen Tippett R17:31−0.10+0.15−0.28+0.00−0.00+0.00+0.03+0.00
Noah Cates L14:12−0.12+0.03−0.12−0.01+0.01+0.00−0.02+0.00
Sean Couturier C20:27−0.13+0.35−0.15+0.05+0.00+0.00−0.03−0.35
Rasmus Ristolainen D17:49−0.15+0.13−0.09−0.01+0.01−0.19+0.00−0.00
Cam York D21:09−0.18−0.15−0.02+0.00−0.00+0.00+0.00−0.00
Scott Laughton C12:45−0.21−0.11−0.05−0.01+0.00+0.00−0.05+0.00
Travis Sanheim D24:48−0.26−0.00−0.25+0.00−0.01+0.00+0.00−0.00
Morgan Frost C16:42−0.43+0.21−0.18+0.01+0.01+0.00−0.03−0.44
Joel Farabee L17:40−0.56−0.37−0.17−0.01−0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00
Cam Atkinson R18:13−0.72+0.30−0.72−0.00+0.00+0.00+0.00−0.30
Ryan Poehling C12:32−0.73−0.28−0.29−0.01+0.01−0.19+0.03+0.00
GoalieTOIGSAx (net goals)
Samuel Ersson G65:00+3.98

NYI

SkaterTOIGANet goalsOn-iceFinishingPlaymakingSuppressionPenaltiesFaceoffsShootout
Ryan Pulock D23:33+0.39+0.45−0.12+0.05+0.02+0.00+0.00−0.00
Cal Clutterbuck R12:00+0.08+0.09−0.00−0.01+0.01+0.00−0.01+0.00
Casey Cizikas C14:30+0.04+0.06−0.05−0.01−0.00+0.00+0.04+0.00
Grant Hutton D10:11−0.00−0.01+0.01+0.00−0.00+0.00+0.00−0.00
Samuel Bolduc D12:44−0.02−0.02+0.01−0.00+0.00+0.00+0.00−0.00
Anders Lee C15:19−0.07−0.19−0.06−0.00−0.01+0.19+0.01+0.00
Jean-Gabriel Pageau C16:13−0.13−0.17−0.00−0.01+0.00+0.00+0.05+0.00
Simon Holmstrom R14:40−0.16−0.16−0.00−0.02+0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00
Alexander Romanov D22:52−0.24−0.04−0.01−0.01+0.01−0.19+0.00−0.00
Scott Mayfield D21:10−0.24−0.25+0.01−0.00+0.01+0.00+0.00−0.00
Pierre Engvall L19:46−0.30−0.19−0.10−0.02+0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00
Julien Gauthier R8:45−0.31+0.05−0.35−0.01−0.00+0.00+0.00+0.00
Noah Dobson D28:41−0.38−0.52−0.07−0.00+0.02+0.19+0.00−0.00
Oliver Wahlstrom R11:50−0.54−0.10−0.09−0.00+0.01+0.00+0.00−0.35
Kyle Palmieri C18:40−0.57−0.28−0.06+0.01+0.01+0.19+0.00−0.44
Mathew Barzal C20:37−0.74+0.03−0.31+0.01−0.01+0.00−0.02−0.44
Bo Horvat C20:38−0.80+0.22−0.69−0.01−0.01+0.00−0.02−0.30
Brock Nelson C21:45−1.00−0.52−0.51−0.01+0.01+0.00+0.03+0.00
GoalieTOIGSAx (net goals)
Ilya Sorokin G64:06+3.56

Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.