COL beat MIN 3–2. COL also won the expected-goals battle 3.3 to 2.8: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Kurtis MacDermid scored at 4:56 of the third, moving COL’s win probability from 48% to 76%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | COL–MIN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 17:43 | COL | Ross Colton from Bowen Byram, Riley Tufte | 1–0 | 47% → 65% |
| P2 8:39 | COL | Valeri NichushkinPP from Nathan MacKinnon, Devon Toews | 2–0 | 69% → 84% |
| P2 9:13 | MIN | Kirill Kaprizov from Marco Rossi | 2–1 | 16% → 32% |
| P2 14:21 | MIN | Joel Eriksson EkPP from Mats Zuccarello, Kirill Kaprizov | 2–2 | 35% → 53% |
| P3 4:56 | COL | Kurtis MacDermid from Andrew Cogliano, Fredrik Olofsson | 3–2 | 48% → 76% |
Every player
Show both lineups
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurtis MacDermid L | 3:30 | 1 | +0.81 | +0.02 | +0.81 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ross Colton C | 10:27 | 1 | +0.65 | +0.09 | +0.58 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cale Makar D | 28:48 | +0.40 | +0.11 | −0.16 | +0.05 | +0.03 | +0.37 | +0.00 | ||
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 27:21 | 1 | +0.40 | −0.05 | +0.33 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.02 | |
| Joel Kiviranta L | 13:23 | +0.21 | +0.21 | −0.36 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.37 | +0.00 | ||
| Miles Wood L | 9:38 | +0.05 | +0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Josh Manson D | 15:41 | −0.00 | +0.07 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikko Rantanen R | 24:22 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.31 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.03 | ||
| Jonathan Drouin L | 17:30 | −0.03 | +0.21 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Johansen C | 13:45 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Caleb Jones D | 9:42 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 24:05 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.20 | +0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Fredrik Olofsson L | 10:26 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Devon Toews D | 24:49 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Riley Tufte L | 10:46 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Johnson D | 13:39 | −0.16 | −0.10 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Cogliano C | 10:34 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Bowen Byram D | 20:35 | 1 | −0.49 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.37 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alexandar Georgiev G | 60:00 | +0.60 |
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirill Kaprizov L | 19:45 | 1 | 1 | +0.92 | +0.11 | +0.77 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Brandon Duhaime R | 9:16 | +0.19 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.37 | +0.00 | ||
| Mats Zuccarello C | 18:02 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.15 | −0.08 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Jon Merrill D | 10:11 | +0.11 | +0.11 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Bogosian D | 11:03 | +0.07 | +0.09 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marco Rossi C | 16:13 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Patrick Maroon L | 7:25 | −0.07 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 22:42 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.20 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Jared Spurgeon D | 24:57 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonas Brodin D | 28:12 | −0.12 | −0.10 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Foligno L | 15:16 | −0.13 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Ryan Hartman R | 18:14 | −0.15 | +0.07 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Connor Dewar C | 8:56 | −0.15 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Frederick Gaudreau C | 14:43 | −0.15 | −0.04 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Marcus Johansson L | 10:59 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Jake Middleton D | 16:45 | −0.33 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Faber D | 21:49 | −0.35 | −0.14 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Boldy L | 13:17 | −0.65 | +0.02 | −0.51 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Filip Gustavsson G | 59:07 | −0.41 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.