MTL beat SJS 3–2 in a shootout. MTL lost the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 3.0 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Cole Caufield scored at 3:26 of the third, moving MTL’s win probability from 21% to 48%. Cayden Primeau saved 2.5 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MTL–SJS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 5:06 |  SJS | Mike Hoffman from William Eklund, Tomas Hertl | 0–1 | 53% → 73% |
| P2 12:30 | SJS | William EklundPP from Calen Addison, Tomas Hertl | 0–2 | 75% → 89% |
| P2 18:02 | MTL | Johnathan Kovacevic from Jayden Struble, Cole Caufield | 1–2 | 9% → 24% |
| P3 3:26 | MTL | Cole Caufield from Juraj Slafkovský, Cayden Primeau | 2–2 | 21% → 48% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesse Ylonen R | 7:16 | +0.94 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +1.06 | ||
| Nick Suzuki C | 21:35 | +0.79 | +0.15 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.71 | ||
| Johnathan Kovacevic D | 11:10 | 1 | +0.78 | −0.05 | +0.84 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Alex Newhook C | 20:25 | +0.06 | +0.17 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Pezzetta L | 6:45 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Matheson D | 26:52 | −0.14 | +0.16 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Gustav Lindstrom D | 20:23 | −0.14 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Cole Caufield R | 20:33 | 1 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.15 | +0.06 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.35 |
| Brendan Gallagher R | 17:15 | −0.18 | +0.04 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Anderson R | 15:13 | −0.19 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Kaiden Guhle D | 25:01 | −0.20 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jayden Struble D | 13:03 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.08 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Justin Barron D | 25:09 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jake Evans C | 11:56 | −0.27 | −0.29 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | ||
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 19:44 | 1 | −0.40 | +0.19 | −0.31 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.19 | −0.02 | −0.44 | |
| Tanner Pearson L | 16:01 | −0.50 | −0.18 | −0.30 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Monahan C | 16:55 | −0.67 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.44 | ||
| Christian Dvorak C | 17:40 | −0.73 | −0.12 | −0.25 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.06 | −0.44 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cayden Primeau G | 65:00 | +2.48 |
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Eklund L | 19:20 | 1 | 1 | +1.42 | +0.06 | +0.66 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.71 |
| Calen Addison D | 17:54 | 1 | +0.26 | +0.27 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Matt Benning D | 18:20 | +0.23 | +0.22 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Ty Emberson D | 23:53 | +0.01 | +0.06 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Givani Smith R | 6:54 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nico Sturm C | 15:09 | −0.06 | +0.05 | −0.26 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.03 | +0.00 | ||
| Filip Zadina R | 4:14 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mario Ferraro D | 26:17 | −0.10 | +0.11 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Ryan Carpenter C | 9:25 | −0.11 | +0.07 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Hoffman C | 18:09 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.02 | +0.48 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.44 | |
| Nikita Okhotiuk D | 17:10 | −0.12 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jacob MacDonald D | 15:41 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Kyle Burroughs D | 18:19 | −0.20 | −0.12 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Mikael Granlund C | 21:48 | −0.37 | +0.12 | −0.09 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.44 | ||
| Luke Kunin C | 15:35 | −0.37 | +0.08 | −0.43 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Duclair L | 18:49 | −0.42 | +0.12 | −0.12 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.44 | ||
| Tomas Hertl C | 22:41 | 2 | −0.72 | +0.04 | −0.28 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.44 | |
| Fabian Zetterlund L | 21:41 | −0.75 | +0.01 | −0.60 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.35 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mackenzie Blackwood G | 64:41 | +0.61 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.