CHI beat TOR 4–3 in overtime. CHI lost the expected-goals battle 2.8 to 4.2 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Kevin Korchinski scored at 4:30 of overtime, moving CHI’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Arvid Soderblom saved 1.5 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TOR–CHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:14 | TOR | Nicholas Robertson from Max Domi, Mark Giordano | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 8:03 | CHI | Jason Dickinson from Joey Anderson | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P2 1:17 | TOR | Calle Jarnkrok from TJ Brodie, Max Domi | 2–1 | 47% → 66% |
| P2 3:31 | TOR | Ryan Reaves from Jake McCabe, David Kampf | 3–1 | 66% → 82% |
| P2 12:27 | CHI | Jason Dickinson unassisted | 3–2 | 15% → 31% |
| P3 0:15 | CHI | Jason Dickinson unassisted | 3–3 | 27% → 52% |
| OT 4:30 | CHI | Kevin Korchinski from Connor Bedard, Philipp Kurashev | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Reaves R | 9:38 | 1 | +0.76 | +0.02 | +0.75 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 14:15 | 1 | +0.64 | +0.10 | +0.54 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Mark Giordano D | 19:56 | 1 | +0.31 | +0.31 | −0.04 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| TJ Brodie D | 24:52 | 1 | +0.29 | +0.33 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mitch Marner R | 18:15 | +0.26 | +0.14 | −0.09 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake McCabe D | 22:19 | 1 | +0.20 | +0.23 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nicholas Robertson L | 12:40 | 1 | +0.02 | −0.30 | +0.35 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| William Lagesson D | 14:05 | −0.09 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Bertuzzi L | 16:03 | −0.10 | +0.17 | −0.27 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Timmins D | 15:09 | −0.11 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Knies L | 14:20 | −0.18 | −0.03 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Domi C | 12:51 | 2 | −0.20 | −0.04 | −0.25 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| David Kampf C | 15:13 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.05 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| William Nylander R | 22:12 | −0.25 | +0.24 | −0.47 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Gregor L | 11:34 | −0.38 | −0.00 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| John Tavares C | 18:35 | −0.39 | +0.21 | −0.61 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Morgan Rielly D | 26:16 | −0.45 | −0.18 | −0.28 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Auston Matthews C | 19:38 | −0.52 | +0.16 | −0.70 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ilya Samsonov G | 64:30 | −1.04 |
CHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Dickinson C | 17:17 | 3 | +2.35 | +0.08 | +2.29 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Kevin Korchinski D | 22:48 | 1 | +0.92 | +0.18 | +0.76 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joey Anderson R | 13:41 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.19 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Philipp Kurashev C | 17:46 | 1 | +0.12 | +0.22 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Boris Katchouk L | 12:58 | +0.11 | +0.10 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Reese Johnson C | 10:54 | +0.08 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Alex Vlasic D | 22:25 | +0.02 | +0.06 | −0.07 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Murphy D | 19:01 | −0.02 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Wyatt Kaiser D | 15:43 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Isaak Phillips D | 14:25 | −0.16 | −0.03 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Foligno L | 16:59 | −0.17 | −0.08 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cole Guttman C | 15:31 | −0.33 | −0.32 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Taylor Raddysh R | 17:48 | −0.51 | −0.36 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Connor Bedard C | 19:47 | 1 | −0.52 | +0.08 | −0.57 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Lukas Reichel L | 16:40 | −0.53 | −0.46 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Ryan Donato C | 12:40 | −0.53 | −0.02 | −0.47 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Tyler Johnson C | 17:16 | −0.59 | −0.21 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.02 | ||
| Seth Jones D | 25:51 | −0.81 | −0.49 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Arvid Soderblom G | 64:30 | +1.53 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.