COL beat VAN 5–2. COL lost the expected-goals battle 1.8 to 2.5 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Riley Tufte scored at 1:24 of the third, moving COL’s win probability from 52% to 78%. Thatcher Demko allowed 1.8 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VAN–COL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 16:23 |  VAN | Nils Hoglander from Anthony Beauvillier, Sam Lafferty | 1–0 | 47% → 65% |
| P1 17:37 |  COL | Valeri NichushkinPP from Mikko Rantanen, Jonathan Drouin | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P1 18:43 | COL | Jonathan Drouin from Cale Makar, Bowen Byram | 1–2 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 9:04 | VAN | J.T. Miller from Quinn Hughes, Filip Hronek | 2–2 | 27% → 47% |
| P3 1:24 | COL | Riley Tufte from Miles Wood, Ross Colton | 2–3 | 52% → 78% |
| P3 12:38 | COL | Cale Makar unassisted | 2–4 | 85% → 98% |
| P3 16:38 | COL | Mikko RantanenEN from Nathan MacKinnon, Valeri Nichushkin | 2–5 | 99% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.T. Miller C | 20:09 | 1 | +0.80 | −0.10 | +0.81 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.09 | |
| Nils Hoglander L | 11:42 | 1 | +0.74 | −0.04 | +0.76 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dakota Joshua C | 11:10 | +0.15 | +0.17 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Teddy Blueger C | 14:31 | +0.12 | +0.16 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Mark Friedman D | 5:59 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Lafferty C | 14:48 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Ian Cole D | 20:44 | −0.04 | +0.18 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrei Kuzmenko L | 14:33 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Filip Hronek D | 26:51 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Noah Juulsen D | 15:20 | −0.11 | +0.04 | −0.16 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Boeser R | 17:52 | −0.15 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Garland R | 10:34 | −0.18 | +0.07 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Phillip Di Giuseppe L | 12:11 | −0.18 | −0.04 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Myers D | 18:13 | −0.23 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Quinn Hughes D | 27:53 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.01 | −0.24 | +0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ilya Mikheyev R | 14:03 | −0.34 | +0.02 | −0.38 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 16:27 | 1 | −0.36 | +0.01 | −0.19 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Elias Pettersson C | 18:59 | −0.37 | −0.06 | −0.34 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Thatcher Demko G | 59:25 | −1.83 |
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cale Makar D | 24:36 | 1 | 1 | +0.93 | +0.21 | +0.67 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jonathan Drouin L | 13:42 | 1 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.06 | +0.68 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Riley Tufte L | 9:03 | 1 | +0.72 | −0.19 | +0.73 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 19:45 | 1 | 1 | +0.46 | +0.12 | +0.51 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Tomas Tatar L | 10:40 | +0.04 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Johnson D | 18:02 | +0.03 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Johansen C | 11:13 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Andrew Cogliano C | 12:24 | −0.00 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Joel Kiviranta L | 14:22 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Caleb Jones D | 15:59 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Devon Toews D | 25:43 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikko Rantanen R | 20:09 | 1 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.05 | −0.04 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.06 |
| Fredrik Olofsson L | 13:50 | −0.08 | +0.03 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Ross Colton C | 11:42 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.03 | |
| Bowen Byram D | 22:46 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Manson D | 9:38 | −0.16 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Miles Wood L | 13:20 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 22:06 | 1 | −0.23 | +0.08 | −0.49 | +0.07 | −0.00 | +0.19 | −0.07 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alexandar Georgiev G | 60:00 | +0.36 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.