MTL beat ANA 4–3. Expected goals were close to even (MTL 2.8, ANA 2.9), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Alex Newhook scored at 16:40 of the third, moving MTL’s win probability from 49% to 90%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MTL–ANA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:59 |  MTL | Alex Newhook from Tanner Pearson, Brendan Gallagher | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 6:37 | MTL | Kaiden Guhle from Jesse Ylonen, Jake Evans | 2–0 | 63% → 76% |
| P2 0:53 |  ANA | Mason McTavishPP from Leo Carlsson, Pavel Mintyukov | 2–1 | 20% → 34% |
| P2 1:49 | MTL | Mike Matheson from Nick Suzuki, Justin Barron | 3–1 | 66% → 81% |
| P2 6:00 | ANA | Mason McTavish from Frank Vatrano, Tristan Luneau | 3–2 | 17% → 33% |
| P3 11:31 | ANA | Frank Vatrano from Mason McTavish, Cam Fowler | 3–3 | 18% → 52% |
| P3 16:40 | MTL | Alex Newhook from Jake Evans | 4–3 | 49% → 90% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Newhook C | 19:12 | 2 | +1.37 | +0.22 | +1.17 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Mike Matheson D | 25:09 | 1 | +0.95 | −0.01 | +0.80 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Kaiden Guhle D | 22:53 | 1 | +0.72 | −0.00 | +0.73 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Gustav Lindstrom D | 14:51 | +0.31 | +0.13 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jayden Struble D | 11:20 | +0.15 | +0.15 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Monahan C | 20:01 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Johnathan Kovacevic D | 17:40 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Evans C | 11:35 | 2 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Nick Suzuki C | 21:17 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.17 | −0.19 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Jesse Ylonen R | 7:23 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Brendan Gallagher R | 16:18 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.12 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Pezzetta L | 6:49 | −0.18 | −0.03 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Justin Barron D | 21:49 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Christian Dvorak C | 15:28 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Josh Anderson R | 16:18 | −0.28 | −0.04 | −0.21 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Juraj Slafkovský L | 14:31 | −0.32 | +0.04 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Tanner Pearson L | 17:31 | 1 | −0.46 | −0.08 | −0.33 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Cole Caufield R | 18:41 | −0.51 | −0.01 | −0.46 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Samuel Montembeault G | 59:09 | −0.47 |
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason McTavish C | 15:15 | 2 | 1 | +1.29 | −0.08 | +1.36 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Frank Vatrano R | 17:05 | 1 | 1 | +0.70 | −0.02 | +0.74 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Cam Fowler D | 22:28 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.26 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Troy Terry R | 16:18 | +0.13 | +0.12 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Radko Gudas D | 20:15 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Carrick C | 11:06 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ryan Strome C | 14:27 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.06 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Leo Carlsson C | 16:02 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.13 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Pavel Mintyukov D | 19:00 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tristan Luneau D | 17:48 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.06 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jakob Silfverberg R | 13:33 | −0.11 | +0.06 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Killorn L | 15:55 | −0.13 | +0.13 | −0.25 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ross Johnston L | 7:06 | −0.15 | +0.04 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Urho Vaakanainen D | 18:43 | −0.16 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Leason R | 12:11 | −0.18 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ilya Lyubushkin D | 20:44 | −0.33 | −0.05 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Henrique C | 18:46 | −0.41 | −0.12 | −0.36 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Max Jones L | 16:53 | −0.70 | −0.11 | −0.38 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| John Gibson G | 58:25 | −0.96 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.