WSH beat BUF 4–3 in overtime. WSH lost the expected-goals battle 2.7 to 3.2 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Dylan Strome scored at 4:52 of overtime, moving WSH’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Devon Levi allowed 1.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BUF–WSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 10:09 | BUF | JJ Peterka from Tyson Jost, Victor Olofsson | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 16:04 | BUF | Zach Benson from Victor Olofsson | 2–0 | 65% → 79% |
| P1 17:01 | WSH | Alexander Alexeyev from Nic Dowd, Trevor van Riemsdyk | 2–1 | 21% → 35% |
| P2 7:50 | WSH | T.J. Oshie from Connor McMichael | 2–2 | 32% → 53% |
| P2 16:18 | BUF | Dylan CozensPP from Rasmus Dahlin, Casey Mittelstadt | 3–2 | 54% → 71% |
| P3 18:45 | WSH | Tom WilsonPP from Dylan Strome, John Carlson | 3–3 | 5% → 50% |
| OT 4:52 | WSH | Dylan Strome from John Carlson | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Peterka R | 20:59 | 1 | +0.92 | +0.06 | +0.86 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Cozens C | 21:12 | 1 | +0.59 | +0.03 | +0.58 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Benson L | 17:21 | 1 | +0.58 | −0.08 | +0.66 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Henri Jokiharju D | 12:59 | +0.13 | +0.12 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Clifton D | 13:59 | +0.07 | +0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Johnson D | 12:28 | +0.07 | +0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Dahlin D | 27:21 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.26 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jeff Skinner L | 18:31 | +0.04 | +0.33 | −0.43 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.19 | −0.01 | ||
| Tyson Jost C | 10:18 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 14:07 | −0.03 | +0.09 | −0.12 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Kyle Okposo R | 13:06 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Ryan Johnson D | 10:15 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Greenway L | 16:38 | −0.12 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Owen Power D | 23:53 | −0.14 | −0.13 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Victor Olofsson R | 9:49 | 2 | −0.14 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Casey Mittelstadt C | 23:21 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.09 | −0.25 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Tuch R | 24:56 | −0.20 | +0.30 | −0.69 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Samuelsson D | 19:51 | −0.21 | −0.15 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Devon Levi G | 64:34 | −1.35 |
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Strome C | 21:34 | 1 | 1 | +1.11 | +0.36 | +0.73 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Alexander Alexeyev D | 10:55 | 1 | +0.93 | +0.03 | +0.90 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tom Wilson R | 17:10 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.21 | +0.36 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| T.J. Oshie R | 17:51 | 1 | +0.74 | −0.02 | +0.76 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Sonny Milano L | 14:06 | +0.03 | +0.09 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Mantha R | 16:04 | −0.01 | +0.09 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Hendrix Lapierre C | 9:12 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 15:48 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Beck Malenstyn L | 13:59 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Joel Edmundson D | 17:23 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicolas Aube-Kubel R | 12:49 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nic Dowd C | 15:41 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.16 | −0.09 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Nick Jensen D | 19:24 | −0.28 | −0.08 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Sandin D | 27:02 | −0.30 | −0.10 | −0.19 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Aliaksei Protas L | 13:21 | −0.32 | −0.13 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Carlson D | 30:05 | 2 | −0.45 | −0.03 | −0.44 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Ovechkin L | 20:19 | −0.52 | −0.23 | −0.31 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor McMichael L | 16:35 | 1 | −0.96 | −0.40 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.37 | −0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Darcy Kuemper G | 64:39 | −0.23 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.