NSH beat COL 4–3. NSH also won the expected-goals battle 3.0 to 2.1: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Yakov Trenin scored at 19:38 of the third, moving NSH’s win probability from 51% to 97%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | COL–NSH | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 14:00 | COL | Andrew CoglianoSH from Valeri Nichushkin, Cale Makar | 1–0 | 46% → 64% |
| P1 19:42 |  NSH | Filip ForsbergPP from Cody Glass, Philip Tomasino | 1–1 | 34% → 53% |
| P2 3:56 | NSH | Jeremy Lauzon from Gustav Nyquist, Ryan O'Reilly | 1–2 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 8:55 | COL | Devon Toews from Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar | 2–2 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 13:33 | COL | Valeri NichushkinPP from Cale Makar, Nathan MacKinnon | 3–2 | 48% → 70% |
| P3 19:22 | NSH | Filip ForsbergPP from Gustav Nyquist, Colton Sissons | 3–3 | 5% → 51% |
| P3 19:38 | NSH | Yakov Trenin from Cole Smith | 3–4 | 51% → 97% |
Every player
Show both lineups
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Cogliano C | 10:08 | 1 | +0.90 | +0.04 | +0.70 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | −0.03 | |
| Devon Toews D | 21:50 | 1 | +0.65 | −0.24 | +0.87 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Valeri Nichushkin R | 23:42 | 1 | 1 | +0.53 | −0.05 | +0.38 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 |
| Cale Makar D | 25:02 | 3 | +0.12 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jonathan Drouin L | 10:57 | +0.06 | −0.10 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Josh Manson D | 18:07 | +0.05 | +0.09 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Caleb Jones D | 12:09 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Tatar L | 11:19 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan O'Connor R | 12:36 | −0.14 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Joel Kiviranta L | 11:52 | −0.15 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bowen Byram D | 23:13 | −0.17 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Johansen C | 12:53 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Mikko Rantanen R | 24:50 | −0.18 | −0.06 | −0.19 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Miles Wood L | 9:51 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Fredrik Olofsson L | 12:06 | −0.23 | −0.09 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Jack Johnson D | 14:52 | −0.34 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ross Colton C | 13:23 | −0.55 | −0.27 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 23:56 | 2 | −0.77 | −0.05 | −0.75 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Alexandar Georgiev G | 59:14 | −0.68 |
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Filip Forsberg L | 18:54 | 2 | +1.64 | +0.13 | +1.30 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Jeremy Lauzon D | 21:31 | 1 | +0.93 | +0.13 | +0.82 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Yakov Trenin C | 15:11 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.08 | +0.75 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexandre Carrier D | 20:53 | +0.37 | +0.37 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Spencer Stastney D | 16:36 | +0.14 | +0.15 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 22:52 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.14 | −0.32 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.05 | |
| Cole Smith L | 11:10 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Juuso Parssinen C | 15:24 | −0.02 | +0.17 | −0.38 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.19 | +0.01 | ||
| Michael McCarron C | 11:27 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Kiefer Sherwood L | 11:34 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dante Fabbro D | 16:00 | −0.11 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Philip Tomasino C | 14:16 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Cody Glass C | 13:07 | 1 | −0.25 | +0.06 | −0.30 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Liam Foudy C | 9:47 | −0.25 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Roman Josi D | 21:49 | −0.26 | +0.20 | −0.30 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Sissons C | 16:01 | 1 | −0.33 | +0.13 | −0.46 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyson Barrie D | 18:04 | −0.39 | −0.20 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Gustav Nyquist R | 18:12 | 2 | −0.42 | +0.16 | −0.38 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.19 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Juuse Saros G | 58:44 | −0.64 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.