FLA beat EDM 5–3. Expected goals were close to even (EDM 3.1, FLA 3.0), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Kevin Stenlund scored at 13:42 of the second, moving FLA’s win probability from 53% to 75%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | EDM–FLA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:59 | EDM | Connor McDavid from Leon Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 9:00 | EDM | Evander Kane from Derek Ryan, Ryan McLeod | 2–0 | 63% → 77% |
| P1 10:36 | FLA | Carter VerhaeghePP from Sam Reinhart | 2–1 | 24% → 36% |
| P1 15:53 | FLA | Niko Mikkola from Kevin Stenlund | 2–2 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 5:00 | EDM | Connor McDavidPP unassisted | 3–2 | 47% → 67% |
| P2 6:08 | FLA | Niko Mikkola from Carter Verhaeghe | 3–3 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 13:42 | FLA | Kevin Stenlund from Eetu Luostarinen | 3–4 | 53% → 75% |
| P3 19:17 | FLA | Sam BennettEN from Kevin Stenlund, Gustav Forsling | 3–5 | 96% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connor McDavid C | 24:00 | 2 | +1.54 | −0.07 | +1.38 | +0.09 | −0.02 | +0.19 | −0.03 | |
| Derek Ryan C | 11:37 | 1 | +0.24 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Cody Ceci D | 18:02 | +0.06 | +0.08 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Warren Foegele L | 17:51 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| James Hamblin L | 6:16 | +0.02 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Vincent Desharnais D | 7:07 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Philip Broberg D | 10:22 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Darnell Nurse D | 24:35 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Erne L | 6:49 | −0.02 | +0.06 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evander Kane L | 13:30 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.12 | +0.47 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.37 | +0.01 | |
| Mattias Ekholm D | 18:37 | −0.08 | +0.11 | −0.04 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan McLeod C | 15:29 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.07 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Brett Kulak D | 14:51 | −0.15 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Brown R | 16:10 | −0.17 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 21:17 | −0.26 | −0.19 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.08 | ||
| Zach Hyman L | 20:32 | −0.43 | −0.19 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Leon Draisaitl C | 25:17 | 1 | −0.54 | −0.10 | −0.51 | +0.06 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Evan Bouchard D | 20:32 | 1 | −0.60 | −0.06 | −0.32 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.19 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Calvin Pickard G | 57:38 | −0.61 |
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Niko Mikkola D | 20:11 | 2 | +1.75 | +0.10 | +1.67 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Carter Verhaeghe C | 20:28 | 1 | 1 | +0.55 | +0.08 | +0.51 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Kevin Stenlund C | 14:12 | 1 | 2 | +0.40 | −0.03 | +0.59 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.19 | +0.05 |
| Dmitry Kulikov D | 15:29 | +0.20 | +0.20 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 18:50 | +0.07 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Lomberg L | 6:10 | +0.06 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Steven Lorentz C | 6:02 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Nick Cousins C | 13:26 | +0.03 | −0.07 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonah Gadjovich L | 3:27 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Bennett C | 17:27 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.25 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.05 | |
| Brandon Montour D | 23:23 | −0.15 | −0.06 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matthew Tkachuk L | 20:15 | −0.15 | +0.12 | −0.51 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Reinhart C | 23:16 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Gustav Forsling D | 20:56 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.00 | |
| Eetu Luostarinen C | 17:35 | 1 | −0.30 | +0.06 | −0.54 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.01 | |
| Aaron Ekblad D | 20:56 | −0.32 | −0.07 | −0.46 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.19 | +0.00 | ||
| Evan Rodrigues C | 12:24 | −0.43 | −0.07 | −0.32 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Anton Lundell C | 17:33 | −0.55 | −0.11 | −0.30 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.19 | +0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky G | 60:00 | −0.12 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.